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Olympiakos vs Leverkusen — Champions League Prediction 20 January 2026

Olympiakos
Olympiakos
Champions League
1
VS
2
schedule 20 Jan, 20:00 · Referee: Maurizio Mariani (Italy)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 22 Jul 2026

Leverkusen
Leverkusen
Final result
2 – 0
CoachAI prediction
1 – 2
✗ Outcome incorrect
Kickoff in —

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Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen in the Champions League. Olympiakos is the favourite with a 38% win probability. Leverkusen has a 35% chance of winning and 27% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Olympiakos vs Leverkusen

This is Matchday 7 of the UCL League Phase. Olympiakos sits 29th and is desperate for a win to break into the Top 24 playoff spots. Leverkusen, 20th, aims to secure their knockout position and snap a poor domestic run (losses to Stuttgart and Hoffenheim) using their superior European tactical setup under Kasper Hjulmand.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

33%
34%
33%
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Scenario Explanation

Despite Leverkusen's current domestic slump, they maintain a high xG creation rate (avg 1.85 in CL) compared to Olympiakos's struggle for clinical finishing (only 6 goals in 6 CL matches). The absence of El Kaabi for the hosts significantly reduces their threat in the box, making it difficult to exploit Leverkusen’s makeshift defense. While the Karaiskakis Stadium atmosphere usually bolsters the home side, Leverkusen's technical quality on the counter via Grimaldo and Tillman should prove decisive against a Greek side that has conceded 2.17 goals per game in Europe this term.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

League phase

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
1 Arsenal FC 8 8 0 0 +19 24
2 FC Bayern München 8 7 0 1 +14 21
3 Liverpool FC 8 6 0 2 +12 18
4 Tottenham Hotspur FC 8 5 2 1 +10 17
5 FC Barcelona 8 5 1 2 +8 16
6 Chelsea FC 8 5 1 2 +7 16
7 Sporting Clube de Portugal 8 5 1 2 +6 16
8 Manchester City FC 8 5 1 2 +6 16
9 Real Madrid CF 8 5 0 3 +9 15
10 FC Internazionale Milano 8 5 0 3 +8 15
11 Paris Saint-Germain FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
12 Newcastle United FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
13 Juventus FC 8 3 4 1 +4 13
14 Club Atlético de Madrid 8 4 1 3 +2 13
15 Atalanta BC 8 4 1 3 0 13
16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 3 3 2 -1 12
17 Borussia Dortmund 8 3 2 3 +2 11
18 PAE Olympiakos SFP 8 3 2 3 -4 11
19 Club Brugge KV 8 3 1 4 -2 10
20 Galatasaray SK 8 3 1 4 -2 10
21 AS Monaco FC 8 2 4 2 -6 10
22 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 8 3 1 4 -8 10
23 FK Bodø/Glimt 8 2 3 3 -1 9
24 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 8 3 0 5 -2 9
25 Olympique de Marseille 8 3 0 5 -3 9
26 Paphos FC 8 2 3 3 -3 9
27 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 8 3 0 5 -9 9
28 PSV 8 2 2 4 0 8
29 Athletic Club 8 2 2 4 -5 8
30 SSC Napoli 8 2 2 4 -6 8
31 FC København 8 2 2 4 -9 8
32 AFC Ajax 8 2 0 6 -13 6
33 Eintracht Frankfurt 8 1 1 6 -11 4
34 SK Slavia Praha 8 0 3 5 -14 3
35 Villarreal CF 8 0 1 7 -13 1
36 FK Kairat 8 0 1 7 -15 1
Olympiakos
Leverkusen
percent

Coach AI Odds

Olympiakos
38% · 27% · 35%
Leverkusen
W D L

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.42

Home xG

1.28

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Olympiakos Recent Form — Last 5

0 W · 0 D · 0 L
9/12 1-0 Win vs. FK Kairat
26/11 3-4 Loss vs. Real Madrid CF
4/11 1-1 Draw vs. PSV
21/10 1-6 Loss vs. FC Barcelona
1/10 0-2 Loss vs. Arsenal FC

Leverkusen Recent Form — Last 5

0 W · 0 D · 0 L
10/12 2-2 Draw vs. Newcastle United FC
25/11 2-0 Win vs. Manchester City FC
5/11 1-0 Win vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica
21/10 2-7 Loss vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC
1/10 1-1 Draw vs. PSV
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Leverkusen's defensive crisis: Missing starting GK Mark Flekken and key CB Edmond Tapsoba due to injury, plus Robert Andrich (suspension).

trending_up 2

Olympiakos offensive void: Missing top scorer Ayoub El Kaabi due to AFCON final commitments.

person 3

Leverkusen's UCL away resilience: Die Werkself are unbeaten on the road in the Champions League this season (including a 2-0 win at Man City).

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Regression to the mean: Leverkusen has underperformed its xG in 2026 (0-1-5 combined score in last two domestic games), suggesting an imminent tactical correction.

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Injuries & Absentees

Olympiakos: Ayoub El Kaabi (International Duty), Alexandros Paschalakis (GK - Calf), Lorenzo Pirola (Muscle), Pep Biel (Muscle). Bayer Leverkusen: Mark Flekken (GK - Knee), Edmond Tapsoba (Muscle), Robert Andrich (Suspended), Nathan Tella (Foot), Ezequiel Palacios (Knee).

The analyses and predictions on this page are generated by artificial intelligence and are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. This is not gambling advice.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 with a win probability of 38% for Olympiakos, 27% draw and 35% for Leverkusen.

What is the recent form of Olympiakos and Leverkusen?

Olympiakos form (last 5): 0W-0D-0L. Leverkusen form (last 5): 0W-0D-0L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen?

Olympiakos: Ayoub El Kaabi (International Duty), Alexandros Paschalakis (GK - Calf), Lorenzo Pirola (Muscle), Pep Biel (Muscle). Bayer Leverkusen: Mark Flekken (GK - Knee), Edmond Tapsoba (Muscle), Robert Andrich (Suspended), Nathan Tella (Foot), Ezequiel Palacios (Knee).

What are the current standings for Olympiakos and Leverkusen in the UEFA Champions League?

Olympiakos are 18th in the UEFA Champions League with 11 points from 8 games. Leverkusen are 16th with 12 points from 8 games.

What time does Olympiakos vs Leverkusen kick off?

Olympiakos vs Leverkusen kicks off on Tuesday, 20 January 2026 at 21:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Champions League.

Who is the referee for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen?

The referee for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen in the Champions League is Maurizio Mariani.

What are the key factors for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen: 1. Leverkusen's defensive crisis: Missing starting GK Mark Flekken and key CB Edmond Tapsoba due to injury, plus Robert Andrich (suspension). 2. Olympiakos offensive void: Missing top scorer Ayoub El Kaabi due to AFCON final commitments. 3. Leverkusen's UCL away resilience: Die Werkself are unbeaten on the road in the Champions League this season (including a 2-0 win at Man City). 4. Regression to the mean: Leverkusen has underperformed its xG in 2026 (0-1-5 combined score in last two domestic games), suggesting an imminent tactical correction..

What are the Coach AI odds for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen?

Coach AI calculates the following outcome probabilities for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen: Olympiakos wins 38%, draw 27%, Leverkusen wins 35%. The most likely outcome is Olympiakos with 38%.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.