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Qarabağ Ağdam vs Newcastle — Champions League Prediction 18 February 2026

Qarabağ Ağdam
Qarabağ Ağdam
Champions League
2
VS
2
schedule 18 Feb, 17:45 · Referee: Espen Eskås (Norway)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 22 Jul 2026

Newcastle
Newcastle
Final result
1 – 6
CoachAI prediction
2 – 2
✗ Outcome incorrect
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Coach AI predicts a score of 2-2 for Qarabağ Ağdam vs Newcastle in the Champions League. Newcastle is the favourite with a 60% win probability. Qarabağ Ağdam has a 16% chance of winning and 24% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Qarabağ Ağdam vs Newcastle

This is a historic first-ever Champions League knockout appearance for Qarabağ. Baku is a notorious 'trap' for English sides; Qarabağ held Chelsea 2-2 in November and recently beat Eintracht Frankfurt. The 2,500-mile journey and a third high-intensity match in 8 days for Newcastle introduce severe fatigue risks. Weather in Baku is expected to be 10-14°C with north-westerly winds—relatively mild but humid (75%), which could favor the hosts' acclimation.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

60%
30%
10%
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Scenario Explanation

1 goals conceded in league phase) will collide with their elite home efficiency. Scenario 1 (60%): A high-scoring stalemate. Qarabağ tends to score early (6 of 8 UCL games this term) and will target Newcastle’s slow transition defense. Scenario 2 (30%): Newcastle’s individual quality (Anthony Gordon's elite UCL form) manages a narrow 2-1 away win despite being outplayed in midfield. Scenario 3 (10%): A Qarabağ upset win if Newcastle's defensive chemistry fails completely without Schär. Given the provided xG trends—where both teams consistently generate 1.5+ xG but underperform defensively—a 2-2 draw is the most data-backed outcome.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

League phase

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
1 Arsenal FC 8 8 0 0 +19 24
2 FC Bayern München 8 7 0 1 +14 21
3 Liverpool FC 8 6 0 2 +12 18
4 Tottenham Hotspur FC 8 5 2 1 +10 17
5 FC Barcelona 8 5 1 2 +8 16
6 Chelsea FC 8 5 1 2 +7 16
7 Sporting Clube de Portugal 8 5 1 2 +6 16
8 Manchester City FC 8 5 1 2 +6 16
9 Real Madrid CF 8 5 0 3 +9 15
10 FC Internazionale Milano 8 5 0 3 +8 15
11 Paris Saint-Germain FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
12 Newcastle United FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
13 Juventus FC 8 3 4 1 +4 13
14 Club Atlético de Madrid 8 4 1 3 +2 13
15 Atalanta BC 8 4 1 3 0 13
16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 3 3 2 -1 12
17 Borussia Dortmund 8 3 2 3 +2 11
18 PAE Olympiakos SFP 8 3 2 3 -4 11
19 Club Brugge KV 8 3 1 4 -2 10
20 Galatasaray SK 8 3 1 4 -2 10
21 AS Monaco FC 8 2 4 2 -6 10
22 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 8 3 1 4 -8 10
23 FK Bodø/Glimt 8 2 3 3 -1 9
24 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 8 3 0 5 -2 9
25 Olympique de Marseille 8 3 0 5 -3 9
26 Paphos FC 8 2 3 3 -3 9
27 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 8 3 0 5 -9 9
28 PSV 8 2 2 4 0 8
29 Athletic Club 8 2 2 4 -5 8
30 SSC Napoli 8 2 2 4 -6 8
31 FC København 8 2 2 4 -9 8
32 AFC Ajax 8 2 0 6 -13 6
33 Eintracht Frankfurt 8 1 1 6 -11 4
34 SK Slavia Praha 8 0 3 5 -14 3
35 Villarreal CF 8 0 1 7 -13 1
36 FK Kairat 8 0 1 7 -15 1
Qarabağ Ağdam
Newcastle
percent

Coach AI Odds

Qarabağ Ağdam
16% · 24% · 60%
Newcastle
W D L

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.45

Home xG

1.95

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Qarabağ Ağdam Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 1 D · 3 L
▼
▲
28/1 Liverpool FC 6-0 Qarabağ Ağdam FK L 0.95
21/1 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt W 1.90
10/12 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 2-4 AFC Ajax L
25/11 SSC Napoli 2-0 Qarabağ Ağdam FK L
5/11 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 2-2 Chelsea FC D

Newcastle Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 1 D · 3 L
▼
10/2 Tottenham Hotspur FC 1-2 Newcastle United FC W 1.62
7/2 Newcastle United FC 2-3 Brentford FC L 1.82
31/1 Liverpool FC 4-1 Newcastle United FC L 1.18
28/1 Paris Saint-Germain FC 1-1 Newcastle United FC D 1.35
25/1 Newcastle United FC 0-2 Aston Villa FC L 1.91
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Qarabağ's prolific home offense: The 'Horsemen' have scored 2+ goals in each of their last six European home matches at the Tofiq Bəhramov Stadium.

trending_up 2

Newcastle's Midfield Crisis: The 8-week injury to captain Bruno Guimarães removes Newcastle's tactical metronome, forcing a reliance on the returning Joelinton and Sandro Tonali for control.

person 3

High-Event Profiles: Matches involving Qarabağ this UCL season average 4.25 goals, while Newcastle's defense has leaked 13 goals in their last six games across all competitions.

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Injuries & Absentees

Newcastle faces a defensive and creative void with Bruno Guimarães (hamstring), Fabian Schär (ankle), and Tino Livramento (thigh) ruled out. The likely absence of Sven Botman (back) forces a makeshift Thiaw-Burn partnership. While Joelinton's return provides physicality, the loss of Guimarães' ball progression against a high-pressing Qarabağ is a critical systemic downgrade. Qarabağ is missing primary GK Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev but otherwise boasts a healthy, settled XI.

The analyses and predictions on this page are generated by artificial intelligence and are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. This is not gambling advice.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Qarabağ Ağdam vs Newcastle?

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-2 with a win probability of 16% for Qarabağ Ağdam, 24% draw and 60% for Newcastle.

What is the recent form of Qarabağ Ağdam and Newcastle?

Qarabağ Ağdam form (last 5): 1W-1D-3L. Newcastle form (last 5): 1W-1D-3L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Qarabağ Ağdam vs Newcastle?

Newcastle faces a defensive and creative void with Bruno Guimarães (hamstring), Fabian Schär (ankle), and Tino Livramento (thigh) ruled out. The likely absence of Sven Botman (back) forces a makeshift Thiaw-Burn partnership. While Joelinton's return provides physicality, the loss of Guimarães' ball progression against a high-pressing Qarabağ is a critical systemic downgrade. Qarabağ is missing primary GK Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev but otherwise boasts a healthy, settled XI.

What are the current standings for Qarabağ Ağdam and Newcastle in the UEFA Champions League?

Qarabağ Ağdam are 22nd in the UEFA Champions League with 10 points from 8 games. Newcastle are 12th with 14 points from 8 games.

What time does Qarabağ Ağdam vs Newcastle kick off?

Qarabağ Ağdam vs Newcastle kicks off on Wednesday, 18 February 2026 at 18:45 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Champions League.

Who is the referee for Qarabağ Ağdam vs Newcastle?

The referee for Qarabağ Ağdam vs Newcastle in the Champions League is Espen Eskås.

What are the key factors for Qarabağ Ağdam vs Newcastle?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Qarabağ Ağdam vs Newcastle: 1. Qarabağ's prolific home offense: The 'Horsemen' have scored 2+ goals in each of their last six European home matches at the Tofiq Bəhramov Stadium. 2. Newcastle's Midfield Crisis: The 8-week injury to captain Bruno Guimarães removes Newcastle's tactical metronome, forcing a reliance on the returning Joelinton and Sandro Tonali for control. 3. High-Event Profiles: Matches involving Qarabağ this UCL season average 4.25 goals, while Newcastle's defense has leaked 13 goals in their last six games across all competitions..

What are the Coach AI odds for Qarabağ Ağdam vs Newcastle?

Coach AI calculates the following outcome probabilities for Qarabağ Ağdam vs Newcastle: Qarabağ Ağdam wins 16%, draw 24%, Newcastle wins 60%. The most likely outcome is Newcastle with 60%.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.