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Leverkusen vs Arsenal — Champions League Prediction 11 March 2026

Leverkusen
Leverkusen
Champions League
1
VS
2
schedule 11 Mar, 17:45 · Referee: Halil Meler (Turkey)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 22 Jul 2026

Arsenal
Arsenal
Final result
1 – 1
CoachAI prediction
1 – 2
✗ Outcome incorrect
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Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 for Leverkusen vs Arsenal in the Champions League. Arsenal is the favourite with a 58% win probability. Leverkusen has a 18% chance of winning and 24% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Leverkusen vs Arsenal

This is a Round of 16 first leg. Arsenal enters with maximum confidence after topping the table, while Leverkusen (16th) has struggled for consistency under Kasper Hjulmand. The weather forecast for Leverkusen is cold and wet (50% rain risk), which favors Arsenal's high-pressing, high-intensity physical style over Leverkusen's more technical wing-back system.

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analytics

Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

55%
30%
15%
analytics
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Scenario Explanation

Scenario 1 (55% likelihood): Arsenal dominates possession and exploits the channels through Saka and Martinelli, securing a multi-goal lead. Scenario 2 (30% likelihood): Leverkusen utilizes home advantage and Grimaldo's set-pieces to keep it close, resulting in a narrow 1-2 loss. Scenario 3 (15% likelihood): A cagey, low-scoring tactical stalemate where Arsenal settles for a draw to decide the tie at the Emirates.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

League phase

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
1 Arsenal FC 8 8 0 0 +19 24
2 FC Bayern München 8 7 0 1 +14 21
3 Liverpool FC 8 6 0 2 +12 18
4 Tottenham Hotspur FC 8 5 2 1 +10 17
5 FC Barcelona 8 5 1 2 +8 16
6 Chelsea FC 8 5 1 2 +7 16
7 Sporting Clube de Portugal 8 5 1 2 +6 16
8 Manchester City FC 8 5 1 2 +6 16
9 Real Madrid CF 8 5 0 3 +9 15
10 FC Internazionale Milano 8 5 0 3 +8 15
11 Paris Saint-Germain FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
12 Newcastle United FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
13 Juventus FC 8 3 4 1 +4 13
14 Club Atlético de Madrid 8 4 1 3 +2 13
15 Atalanta BC 8 4 1 3 0 13
16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 3 3 2 -1 12
17 Borussia Dortmund 8 3 2 3 +2 11
18 PAE Olympiakos SFP 8 3 2 3 -4 11
19 Club Brugge KV 8 3 1 4 -2 10
20 Galatasaray SK 8 3 1 4 -2 10
21 AS Monaco FC 8 2 4 2 -6 10
22 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 8 3 1 4 -8 10
23 FK Bodø/Glimt 8 2 3 3 -1 9
24 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 8 3 0 5 -2 9
25 Olympique de Marseille 8 3 0 5 -3 9
26 Paphos FC 8 2 3 3 -3 9
27 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 8 3 0 5 -9 9
28 PSV 8 2 2 4 0 8
29 Athletic Club 8 2 2 4 -5 8
30 SSC Napoli 8 2 2 4 -6 8
31 FC København 8 2 2 4 -9 8
32 AFC Ajax 8 2 0 6 -13 6
33 Eintracht Frankfurt 8 1 1 6 -11 4
34 SK Slavia Praha 8 0 3 5 -14 3
35 Villarreal CF 8 0 1 7 -13 1
36 FK Kairat 8 0 1 7 -15 1
Leverkusen
Arsenal
percent

Coach AI Odds

Leverkusen
18% · 24% · 58%
Arsenal
W D L

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.68

Home xG

1.84

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Leverkusen Recent Form — Last 5

2 W · 2 D · 1 L
▼
▲
▼
24/2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0-0 PAE Olympiakos SFP D 1.92
18/2 PAE Olympiakos SFP 0-2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen W 1.67
28/1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3-0 Villarreal CF W 2.05
20/1 PAE Olympiakos SFP 2-0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen L 1.28
10/12 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-2 Newcastle United FC D

Arsenal Recent Form — Last 5

3 W · 2 D · 0 L
▼
▲
▼
4/3 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-1 Arsenal FC W 1.98
1/3 Arsenal FC 2-1 Chelsea FC W 2.15
22/2 Tottenham Hotspur FC 1-4 Arsenal FC W 2.05
18/2 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 2-2 Arsenal FC D 2.25
12/2 Brentford FC 1-1 Arsenal FC D 1.95
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Arsenal's historic 8W-0D-0L start in the UCL League Phase with a 2.88 goals-per-game average.

trending_up 2

Bayer Leverkusen's defensive crisis: Missing starting GK Mark Flekken and key defender Loïc Badé.

person 3

Midfield disparity: The Rice-Zubimendi pivot offers elite control against a Leverkusen side that recently conceded 3 goals to Freiburg.

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Injuries & Absentees

Leverkusen is heavily depleted, missing Mark Flekken (GK), Loïc Badé, and Lucas Vázquez. While Patrik Schick returns, he lacks match rhythm. Arsenal is without captain Martin Ødegaard, but Eberechi Eze has successfully deputized in the creative role, and William Saliba's return to the defense provides a massive boost.

The analyses and predictions on this page are generated by artificial intelligence and are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. This is not gambling advice.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Leverkusen vs Arsenal?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 with a win probability of 18% for Leverkusen, 24% draw and 58% for Arsenal.

What is the recent form of Leverkusen and Arsenal?

Leverkusen form (last 5): 2W-2D-1L. Arsenal form (last 5): 3W-2D-0L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Leverkusen vs Arsenal?

Leverkusen is heavily depleted, missing Mark Flekken (GK), Loïc Badé, and Lucas Vázquez. While Patrik Schick returns, he lacks match rhythm. Arsenal is without captain Martin Ødegaard, but Eberechi Eze has successfully deputized in the creative role, and William Saliba's return to the defense provides a massive boost.

What are the current standings for Leverkusen and Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League?

Leverkusen are 16th in the UEFA Champions League with 12 points from 8 games. Arsenal are 1st with 24 points from 8 games.

What time does Leverkusen vs Arsenal kick off?

Leverkusen vs Arsenal kicks off on Wednesday, 11 March 2026 at 18:45 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Champions League.

Who is the referee for Leverkusen vs Arsenal?

The referee for Leverkusen vs Arsenal in the Champions League is Halil Meler.

What are the key factors for Leverkusen vs Arsenal?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Leverkusen vs Arsenal: 1. Arsenal's historic 8W-0D-0L start in the UCL League Phase with a 2.88 goals-per-game average. 2. Bayer Leverkusen's defensive crisis: Missing starting GK Mark Flekken and key defender Loïc Badé. 3. Midfield disparity: The Rice-Zubimendi pivot offers elite control against a Leverkusen side that recently conceded 3 goals to Freiburg..

What are the Coach AI odds for Leverkusen vs Arsenal?

Coach AI calculates the following outcome probabilities for Leverkusen vs Arsenal: Leverkusen wins 18%, draw 24%, Arsenal wins 58%. The most likely outcome is Arsenal with 58%.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.