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Liverpool vs Qarabağ Ağdam — Champions League Prediction 28 January 2026

Liverpool
Liverpool
Champions League
3
VS
1
schedule 28 Jan, 20:00 · Referee: Ivan Kružliak (Slovakia)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 22 Jul 2026

Qarabağ Ağdam
Qarabağ Ağdam
Final result
6 – 0
CoachAI prediction
3 – 1
✓ Outcome correct
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Coach AI predicts a score of 3-1 for Liverpool vs Qarabağ Ağdam in the Champions League. Liverpool is the favourite with a 83% win probability. Qarabağ Ağdam has a 5% chance of winning and 12% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Liverpool vs Qarabağ Ağdam

This is the final matchday of the Champions League League Phase. Anfield will be intense as a top-8 finish is on the line. Weather conditions are clear but windy (19 mph), which may impact Liverpool's high-diagonal switches. Qarabağ arrives with momentum after a 3-2 upset over Eintracht Frankfurt, playing with the 'nothing to lose' psychology of an underdog.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

75%
15%
10%
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Scenario Explanation

1 shots/game), but their makeshift backline is highly vulnerable to transitions. Qarabağ’s 'fearless' approach and recent overperformance of xG (1.90 xG vs 3 goals against Frankfurt) suggest they will find the net. Value Tip: The market likely underestimates Qarabağ's scoring probability; 'Both Teams to Score' (BTTS) is the high-value play. Probability Estimates: Liverpool Win: 75%, Draw: 15%, Qarabağ Win: 10%.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

League phase

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
1 Arsenal FC 8 8 0 0 +19 24
2 FC Bayern München 8 7 0 1 +14 21
3 Liverpool FC 8 6 0 2 +12 18
4 Tottenham Hotspur FC 8 5 2 1 +10 17
5 FC Barcelona 8 5 1 2 +8 16
6 Chelsea FC 8 5 1 2 +7 16
7 Sporting Clube de Portugal 8 5 1 2 +6 16
8 Manchester City FC 8 5 1 2 +6 16
9 Real Madrid CF 8 5 0 3 +9 15
10 FC Internazionale Milano 8 5 0 3 +8 15
11 Paris Saint-Germain FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
12 Newcastle United FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
13 Juventus FC 8 3 4 1 +4 13
14 Club Atlético de Madrid 8 4 1 3 +2 13
15 Atalanta BC 8 4 1 3 0 13
16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 3 3 2 -1 12
17 Borussia Dortmund 8 3 2 3 +2 11
18 PAE Olympiakos SFP 8 3 2 3 -4 11
19 Club Brugge KV 8 3 1 4 -2 10
20 Galatasaray SK 8 3 1 4 -2 10
21 AS Monaco FC 8 2 4 2 -6 10
22 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 8 3 1 4 -8 10
23 FK Bodø/Glimt 8 2 3 3 -1 9
24 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 8 3 0 5 -2 9
25 Olympique de Marseille 8 3 0 5 -3 9
26 Paphos FC 8 2 3 3 -3 9
27 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 8 3 0 5 -9 9
28 PSV 8 2 2 4 0 8
29 Athletic Club 8 2 2 4 -5 8
30 SSC Napoli 8 2 2 4 -6 8
31 FC København 8 2 2 4 -9 8
32 AFC Ajax 8 2 0 6 -13 6
33 Eintracht Frankfurt 8 1 1 6 -11 4
34 SK Slavia Praha 8 0 3 5 -14 3
35 Villarreal CF 8 0 1 7 -13 1
36 FK Kairat 8 0 1 7 -15 1
Liverpool
Qarabağ Ağdam
percent

Coach AI Odds

Liverpool
83% · 12% · 5%
Qarabağ Ağdam
W D L

Projected xG by CoachAI

2.35

Home xG

0.95

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Liverpool Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 3 D · 1 L
▲
▼
24/1 AFC Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool FC L 1.95
21/1 Olympique de Marseille 0-3 Liverpool FC W 1.82
17/1 Liverpool FC 1-1 Burnley FC D 2.15
8/1 Arsenal FC 0-0 Liverpool FC D
4/1 Fulham FC 2-2 Liverpool FC D

Qarabağ Ağdam Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 1 D · 3 L
▲
21/1 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt W 1.90
10/12 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 2-4 AFC Ajax L
25/11 SSC Napoli 2-0 Qarabağ Ağdam FK L
5/11 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 2-2 Chelsea FC D
22/10 Athletic Club 3-1 Qarabağ Ağdam FK L
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Liverpool defensive crisis: Only one senior center-back (Van Dijk) available, forcing Wataru Endo or Ryan Gravenberch into a makeshift defensive role.

trending_up 2

Qarabağ efficiency on the break: The visitors average 1.83 goals per away match in the UCL and have already taken points from Chelsea (2-2).

person 3

High stakes motivation: Liverpool requires a win to secure a Top-8 automatic qualification, while Qarabağ needs a result to guarantee a Top-24 play-off spot.

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Injuries & Absentees

Liverpool faces a severe personnel shortage. Ibrahima Konaté (personal) and Joe Gomez (knee) are out, leaving a massive void in central defense. Combined with the long-term absences of Alexander Isak (leg) and Conor Bradley (knee), the Reds lose significant recovery speed and aerial dominance. Qarabağ remains without long-term absentee Kady Borges but is otherwise near full strength.

The analyses and predictions on this page are generated by artificial intelligence and are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. This is not gambling advice.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Liverpool vs Qarabağ Ağdam?

Coach AI predicts a score of 3-1 with a win probability of 83% for Liverpool, 12% draw and 5% for Qarabağ Ağdam.

What is the recent form of Liverpool and Qarabağ Ağdam?

Liverpool form (last 5): 1W-3D-1L. Qarabağ Ağdam form (last 5): 1W-1D-3L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Liverpool vs Qarabağ Ağdam?

Liverpool faces a severe personnel shortage. Ibrahima Konaté (personal) and Joe Gomez (knee) are out, leaving a massive void in central defense. Combined with the long-term absences of Alexander Isak (leg) and Conor Bradley (knee), the Reds lose significant recovery speed and aerial dominance. Qarabağ remains without long-term absentee Kady Borges but is otherwise near full strength.

What are the current standings for Liverpool and Qarabağ Ağdam in the UEFA Champions League?

Liverpool are 3rd in the UEFA Champions League with 18 points from 8 games. Qarabağ Ağdam are 22nd with 10 points from 8 games.

What time does Liverpool vs Qarabağ Ağdam kick off?

Liverpool vs Qarabağ Ağdam kicks off on Wednesday, 28 January 2026 at 21:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Champions League.

Who is the referee for Liverpool vs Qarabağ Ağdam?

The referee for Liverpool vs Qarabağ Ağdam in the Champions League is Ivan Kružliak.

What are the key factors for Liverpool vs Qarabağ Ağdam?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Liverpool vs Qarabağ Ağdam: 1. Liverpool defensive crisis: Only one senior center-back (Van Dijk) available, forcing Wataru Endo or Ryan Gravenberch into a makeshift defensive role. 2. Qarabağ efficiency on the break: The visitors average 1.83 goals per away match in the UCL and have already taken points from Chelsea (2-2). 3. High stakes motivation: Liverpool requires a win to secure a Top-8 automatic qualification, while Qarabağ needs a result to guarantee a Top-24 play-off spot..

What are the Coach AI odds for Liverpool vs Qarabağ Ağdam?

Coach AI calculates the following outcome probabilities for Liverpool vs Qarabağ Ağdam: Liverpool wins 83%, draw 12%, Qarabağ Ağdam wins 5%. The most likely outcome is Liverpool with 83%.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.