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Marseille vs Liverpool — Champions League Prediction 21 January 2026

Marseille
Marseille
Champions League
1
VS
2
schedule 21 Jan, 20:00 · Referee: Slavko Vinčič (Slovenia)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 22 Jul 2026

Liverpool
Liverpool
Final result
0 – 3
CoachAI prediction
1 – 2
✓ Outcome correct
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Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 for Marseille vs Liverpool in the Champions League. Liverpool is the favourite with a 49% win probability. Marseille has a 26% chance of winning and 25% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Marseille vs Liverpool

As of January 21, 2026, this Matchday 7 clash is critical for direct Round of 16 qualification. Liverpool (9th, 12 pts) is desperate to break a streak of four consecutive domestic draws. Marseille (16th, 9 pts) enters with momentum from a 5-2 win over Angers but remains defensively fragile, having failed to keep clean sheets in recent high-scoring outings.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

33%
34%
33%
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Scenario Explanation

While Marseille’s attack is in peak form—led by Mason Greenwood (23 goals this season)—their depleted backline is the deciding factor. Liverpool has averaged over 25 shots per game in January but lacked clinical finishing; against a De Zerbi side that plays an open, expansive game, Liverpool will find the space they lacked against low-block Premier League teams. The aerial threat of Van Dijk and the creativity of Florian Wirtz should prove too much for Marseille’s makeshift defense, leading to a narrow away victory.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

League phase

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
1 Arsenal FC 8 8 0 0 +19 24
2 FC Bayern München 8 7 0 1 +14 21
3 Liverpool FC 8 6 0 2 +12 18
4 Tottenham Hotspur FC 8 5 2 1 +10 17
5 FC Barcelona 8 5 1 2 +8 16
6 Chelsea FC 8 5 1 2 +7 16
7 Sporting Clube de Portugal 8 5 1 2 +6 16
8 Manchester City FC 8 5 1 2 +6 16
9 Real Madrid CF 8 5 0 3 +9 15
10 FC Internazionale Milano 8 5 0 3 +8 15
11 Paris Saint-Germain FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
12 Newcastle United FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
13 Juventus FC 8 3 4 1 +4 13
14 Club Atlético de Madrid 8 4 1 3 +2 13
15 Atalanta BC 8 4 1 3 0 13
16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 3 3 2 -1 12
17 Borussia Dortmund 8 3 2 3 +2 11
18 PAE Olympiakos SFP 8 3 2 3 -4 11
19 Club Brugge KV 8 3 1 4 -2 10
20 Galatasaray SK 8 3 1 4 -2 10
21 AS Monaco FC 8 2 4 2 -6 10
22 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 8 3 1 4 -8 10
23 FK Bodø/Glimt 8 2 3 3 -1 9
24 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 8 3 0 5 -2 9
25 Olympique de Marseille 8 3 0 5 -3 9
26 Paphos FC 8 2 3 3 -3 9
27 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 8 3 0 5 -9 9
28 PSV 8 2 2 4 0 8
29 Athletic Club 8 2 2 4 -5 8
30 SSC Napoli 8 2 2 4 -6 8
31 FC København 8 2 2 4 -9 8
32 AFC Ajax 8 2 0 6 -13 6
33 Eintracht Frankfurt 8 1 1 6 -11 4
34 SK Slavia Praha 8 0 3 5 -14 3
35 Villarreal CF 8 0 1 7 -13 1
36 FK Kairat 8 0 1 7 -15 1
Marseille
Liverpool
percent

Coach AI Odds

Marseille
26% · 25% · 49%
Liverpool
W D L

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.65

Home xG

1.82

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Marseille Recent Form — Last 5

0 W · 0 D · 0 L
9/12 3-2 Win vs. Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
25/11 2-1 Win vs. Newcastle United FC
5/11 0-1 Loss vs. Atalanta BC
22/10 1-2 Loss vs. Sporting Clube de Portugal
30/9 4-0 Win vs. AFC Ajax

Liverpool Recent Form — Last 5

0 W · 0 D · 0 L
▼
17/1 1-1 Draw vs. Burnley FC 2.15
8/1 0-0 Draw vs. Arsenal FC
4/1 2-2 Draw vs. Fulham FC
1/1 0-0 Draw vs. Leeds United FC
27/12 2-1 Win vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Liverpool's significant underperformance of xG (e.g., 2.15 xG vs Burnley resulting in only 1 goal) suggests an imminent 'regression to the mean' where high shot volume translates into goals.

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Marseille's defensive vulnerability under Roberto De Zerbi is exacerbated by the absence of key defenders Benjamin Pavard and Derek Cornelius.

person 3

Aerial dominance: Marseille ranks among the lowest in Ligue 1 for aerial duels won, a weakness Liverpool is well-equipped to exploit via Virgil van Dijk and set-piece situations.

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Match context: Both teams are fighting for a top-8 spot to avoid the play-off round; Liverpool's superior European form this season (winning 4 of 6) contrasts with Marseille’s defensive inconsistency.

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Injuries & Absentees

Olympique de Marseille: Benjamin Pavard (CB - Out), Derek Cornelius (LB/CB - Out), Ruben Blanco (GK - Out), Nayef Aguerd (CB - Questionable/AFCON return). Liverpool: Alexander Isak (ST - Out, broken leg), Conor Bradley (RB - Out), Giovanni Leoni (CB - Out), Ibrahima Konate (CB - Questionable/Family reasons).

The analyses and predictions on this page are generated by artificial intelligence and are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. This is not gambling advice.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Marseille vs Liverpool?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 with a win probability of 26% for Marseille, 25% draw and 49% for Liverpool.

What is the recent form of Marseille and Liverpool?

Marseille form (last 5): 0W-0D-0L. Liverpool form (last 5): 0W-0D-0L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Marseille vs Liverpool?

Olympique de Marseille: Benjamin Pavard (CB - Out), Derek Cornelius (LB/CB - Out), Ruben Blanco (GK - Out), Nayef Aguerd (CB - Questionable/AFCON return). Liverpool: Alexander Isak (ST - Out, broken leg), Conor Bradley (RB - Out), Giovanni Leoni (CB - Out), Ibrahima Konate (CB - Questionable/Family reasons).

What are the current standings for Marseille and Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League?

Marseille are 25th in the UEFA Champions League with 9 points from 8 games. Liverpool are 3rd with 18 points from 8 games.

What time does Marseille vs Liverpool kick off?

Marseille vs Liverpool kicks off on Wednesday, 21 January 2026 at 21:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Champions League.

Who is the referee for Marseille vs Liverpool?

The referee for Marseille vs Liverpool in the Champions League is Slavko Vinčič.

What are the key factors for Marseille vs Liverpool?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Marseille vs Liverpool: 1. Liverpool's significant underperformance of xG (e.g., 2.15 xG vs Burnley resulting in only 1 goal) suggests an imminent 'regression to the mean' where high shot volume translates into goals. 2. Marseille's defensive vulnerability under Roberto De Zerbi is exacerbated by the absence of key defenders Benjamin Pavard and Derek Cornelius. 3. Aerial dominance: Marseille ranks among the lowest in Ligue 1 for aerial duels won, a weakness Liverpool is well-equipped to exploit via Virgil van Dijk and set-piece situations. 4. Match context: Both teams are fighting for a top-8 spot to avoid the play-off round; Liverpool's superior European form this season (winning 4 of 6) contrasts with Marseille’s defensive inconsistency..

What are the Coach AI odds for Marseille vs Liverpool?

Coach AI calculates the following outcome probabilities for Marseille vs Liverpool: Marseille wins 26%, draw 25%, Liverpool wins 49%. The most likely outcome is Liverpool with 49%.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.