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Newcastle vs Qarabağ Ağdam — Champions League Prediction 24 February 2026

Newcastle
Newcastle
Champions League
3
VS
0
schedule 24 Feb, 20:00 · Referee: Davide Massa (Italy)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 22 Jul 2026

Qarabağ Ağdam
Qarabağ Ağdam
Final result
3 – 2
CoachAI prediction
3 – 0
✓ Outcome correct
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Coach AI predicts a score of 3-0 for Newcastle vs Qarabağ Ağdam in the Champions League. Newcastle is the favourite with a 86% win probability. Qarabağ Ağdam has a 5% chance of winning and 9% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Newcastle vs Qarabağ Ağdam

Tactically, this is a clash of Newcastle’s high-intensity 'Rock' against Qarabağ’s open, vulnerable style. Qarabağ’s coach Gurbanov admitted the Magpies' physical style is a tactical nightmare for them. Psychologically, Newcastle is in a 'luxurious' position to rotate, while Qarabağ is playing solely for pride. Expect a windy evening at St James' Park, which traditionally favors the home side’s direct aerial play.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

60%
25%
15%
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Scenario Explanation

1 first-leg result and Newcastle's home strength, a 3-0 victory is the most balanced statistical projection.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

League phase

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
1 Arsenal FC 8 8 0 0 +19 24
2 FC Bayern München 8 7 0 1 +14 21
3 Liverpool FC 8 6 0 2 +12 18
4 Tottenham Hotspur FC 8 5 2 1 +10 17
5 FC Barcelona 8 5 1 2 +8 16
6 Chelsea FC 8 5 1 2 +7 16
7 Sporting Clube de Portugal 8 5 1 2 +6 16
8 Manchester City FC 8 5 1 2 +6 16
9 Real Madrid CF 8 5 0 3 +9 15
10 FC Internazionale Milano 8 5 0 3 +8 15
11 Paris Saint-Germain FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
12 Newcastle United FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
13 Juventus FC 8 3 4 1 +4 13
14 Club Atlético de Madrid 8 4 1 3 +2 13
15 Atalanta BC 8 4 1 3 0 13
16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 3 3 2 -1 12
17 Borussia Dortmund 8 3 2 3 +2 11
18 PAE Olympiakos SFP 8 3 2 3 -4 11
19 Club Brugge KV 8 3 1 4 -2 10
20 Galatasaray SK 8 3 1 4 -2 10
21 AS Monaco FC 8 2 4 2 -6 10
22 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 8 3 1 4 -8 10
23 FK Bodø/Glimt 8 2 3 3 -1 9
24 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 8 3 0 5 -2 9
25 Olympique de Marseille 8 3 0 5 -3 9
26 Paphos FC 8 2 3 3 -3 9
27 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 8 3 0 5 -9 9
28 PSV 8 2 2 4 0 8
29 Athletic Club 8 2 2 4 -5 8
30 SSC Napoli 8 2 2 4 -6 8
31 FC København 8 2 2 4 -9 8
32 AFC Ajax 8 2 0 6 -13 6
33 Eintracht Frankfurt 8 1 1 6 -11 4
34 SK Slavia Praha 8 0 3 5 -14 3
35 Villarreal CF 8 0 1 7 -13 1
36 FK Kairat 8 0 1 7 -15 1
Newcastle
Qarabağ Ağdam
percent

Coach AI Odds

Newcastle
86% · 9% · 5%
Qarabağ Ağdam
W D L

Projected xG by CoachAI

2.25

Home xG

0.82

Away xG

Upset Chance

Low

Risk of unexpected result

Newcastle Recent Form — Last 5

2 W · 0 D · 3 L
▲
21/2 Manchester City FC 2-1 Newcastle United FC L 1.15
18/2 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 1-6 Newcastle United FC W 1.95
10/2 Tottenham Hotspur FC 1-2 Newcastle United FC W 1.62
7/2 Newcastle United FC 2-3 Brentford FC L 1.82
31/1 Liverpool FC 4-1 Newcastle United FC L 1.18

Qarabağ Ağdam Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 0 D · 4 L
▼
▲
18/2 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 1-6 Newcastle United FC L 1.45
28/1 Liverpool FC 6-0 Qarabağ Ağdam FK L 0.95
21/1 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt W 1.90
10/12 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 2-4 AFC Ajax L
25/11 SSC Napoli 2-0 Qarabağ Ağdam FK L
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Newcastle holds a massive 6-1 aggregate lead, rendering this second leg a near-formality and increasing the likelihood of heavy squad rotation by Eddie Howe.

trending_up 2

Advanced metrics show Newcastle massively overperformed their 1.95 xG in the first leg (scoring 6), suggesting a clinical efficiency that is unlikely to be repeated to the same extent, especially with key players rested.

person 3

Qarabağ has a poor defensive record against top European sides, conceding 12 goals in their last two major continental fixtures (against Liverpool and Newcastle), struggling specifically against high-intensity pressing (PPDA).

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Injuries & Absentees

Newcastle is missing several core starters including Bruno Guimarães (Thigh), Fabian Schär (Ankle), and Tino Livramento (Hamstring). Additionally, Malick Thiaw is suspended. While Sven Botman and Yoane Wissa have returned to training, the 'Replacement Impact' is high: the loss of Guimarães reduces midfield control, but the depth in attack (Barnes, Murphy, Osula) should still overwhelm the visitors.

The analyses and predictions on this page are generated by artificial intelligence and are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. This is not gambling advice.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Newcastle vs Qarabağ Ağdam?

Coach AI predicts a score of 3-0 with a win probability of 86% for Newcastle, 9% draw and 5% for Qarabağ Ağdam.

What is the recent form of Newcastle and Qarabağ Ağdam?

Newcastle form (last 5): 2W-0D-3L. Qarabağ Ağdam form (last 5): 1W-0D-4L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Newcastle vs Qarabağ Ağdam?

Newcastle is missing several core starters including Bruno Guimarães (Thigh), Fabian Schär (Ankle), and Tino Livramento (Hamstring). Additionally, Malick Thiaw is suspended. While Sven Botman and Yoane Wissa have returned to training, the 'Replacement Impact' is high: the loss of Guimarães reduces midfield control, but the depth in attack (Barnes, Murphy, Osula) should still overwhelm the visitors.

What are the current standings for Newcastle and Qarabağ Ağdam in the UEFA Champions League?

Newcastle are 12th in the UEFA Champions League with 14 points from 8 games. Qarabağ Ağdam are 22nd with 10 points from 8 games.

What time does Newcastle vs Qarabağ Ağdam kick off?

Newcastle vs Qarabağ Ağdam kicks off on Tuesday, 24 February 2026 at 21:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Champions League.

Who is the referee for Newcastle vs Qarabağ Ağdam?

The referee for Newcastle vs Qarabağ Ağdam in the Champions League is Davide Massa.

What are the key factors for Newcastle vs Qarabağ Ağdam?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Newcastle vs Qarabağ Ağdam: 1. Newcastle holds a massive 6-1 aggregate lead, rendering this second leg a near-formality and increasing the likelihood of heavy squad rotation by Eddie Howe. 2. Advanced metrics show Newcastle massively overperformed their 1.95 xG in the first leg (scoring 6), suggesting a clinical efficiency that is unlikely to be repeated to the same extent, especially with key players rested. 3. Qarabağ has a poor defensive record against top European sides, conceding 12 goals in their last two major continental fixtures (against Liverpool and Newcastle), struggling specifically against high-intensity pressing (PPDA)..

What are the Coach AI odds for Newcastle vs Qarabağ Ağdam?

Coach AI calculates the following outcome probabilities for Newcastle vs Qarabağ Ağdam: Newcastle wins 86%, draw 9%, Qarabağ Ağdam wins 5%. The most likely outcome is Newcastle with 86%.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.