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Olympiakos vs Leverkusen — Champions League Prediction 18 February 2026

Olympiakos
Olympiakos
Champions League
2
VS
1
schedule 18 Feb, 20:00 · Referee: João Pinheiro (Portugal)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 22 Jul 2026

Leverkusen
Leverkusen
Final result
0 – 2
CoachAI prediction
2 – 1
✗ Outcome incorrect
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Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen in the Champions League. Leverkusen is the favourite with a 37% win probability. Olympiakos has a 35% chance of winning and 28% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Olympiakos vs Leverkusen

This is the first leg of the Champions League Knockout Play-off. The Stadio Georgios Karaiskakis is a documented 'fortress' where the Greek side leverages an intimidating atmosphere to disrupt possession-heavy teams. Tactically, it is a clash between Mendilibar’s direct, high-pressing 4-2-3-1 and Kasper Hjulmand’s (Leverkusen) controlled 3-4-2-1. Leverkusen will likely control 55-60% of the ball, but Olympiakos’ high volume of crosses (24.3 per match) targets a Leverkusen backline that looked vulnerable in the 2-0 defeat last month.

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analytics

Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

33%
34%
33%
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Scenario Explanation

1 victory for Olympiakos. Scenario A (Most Likely): Olympiakos uses their high press to exploit the lack of chemistry between the backup goalkeeper and the defense, scoring early to ignite the home crowd. Scenario B: Leverkusen's superior technical quality (Tillman, Schick) finds a way through, but they remain susceptible to the counter-attack. The data shows Olympiakos is currently in a 'purple patch' of finishing efficiency (above expected xG), which usually suggests regression, but the situational context of Leverkusen's missing #1 goalkeeper and their 'Greece hoodoo' (D1 L3 in last 4 trips) outweighs the statistical trend. A narrow home win is the highest-probability outcome before the return leg in Germany.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

League phase

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
1 Arsenal FC 8 8 0 0 +19 24
2 FC Bayern München 8 7 0 1 +14 21
3 Liverpool FC 8 6 0 2 +12 18
4 Tottenham Hotspur FC 8 5 2 1 +10 17
5 FC Barcelona 8 5 1 2 +8 16
6 Chelsea FC 8 5 1 2 +7 16
7 Sporting Clube de Portugal 8 5 1 2 +6 16
8 Manchester City FC 8 5 1 2 +6 16
9 Real Madrid CF 8 5 0 3 +9 15
10 FC Internazionale Milano 8 5 0 3 +8 15
11 Paris Saint-Germain FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
12 Newcastle United FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
13 Juventus FC 8 3 4 1 +4 13
14 Club Atlético de Madrid 8 4 1 3 +2 13
15 Atalanta BC 8 4 1 3 0 13
16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 3 3 2 -1 12
17 Borussia Dortmund 8 3 2 3 +2 11
18 PAE Olympiakos SFP 8 3 2 3 -4 11
19 Club Brugge KV 8 3 1 4 -2 10
20 Galatasaray SK 8 3 1 4 -2 10
21 AS Monaco FC 8 2 4 2 -6 10
22 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 8 3 1 4 -8 10
23 FK Bodø/Glimt 8 2 3 3 -1 9
24 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 8 3 0 5 -2 9
25 Olympique de Marseille 8 3 0 5 -3 9
26 Paphos FC 8 2 3 3 -3 9
27 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 8 3 0 5 -9 9
28 PSV 8 2 2 4 0 8
29 Athletic Club 8 2 2 4 -5 8
30 SSC Napoli 8 2 2 4 -6 8
31 FC København 8 2 2 4 -9 8
32 AFC Ajax 8 2 0 6 -13 6
33 Eintracht Frankfurt 8 1 1 6 -11 4
34 SK Slavia Praha 8 0 3 5 -14 3
35 Villarreal CF 8 0 1 7 -13 1
36 FK Kairat 8 0 1 7 -15 1
Olympiakos
Leverkusen
percent

Coach AI Odds

Olympiakos
35% · 28% · 37%
Leverkusen
W D L

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.40

Home xG

1.67

Away xG

Upset Chance

High

Risk of unexpected result

Olympiakos Recent Form — Last 5

3 W · 1 D · 1 L
▲
▲
28/1 AFC Ajax 1-2 PAE Olympiakos SFP W 1.38
20/1 PAE Olympiakos SFP 2-0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen W 1.42
9/12 FK Kairat 0-1 PAE Olympiakos SFP W
26/11 PAE Olympiakos SFP 3-4 Real Madrid CF L
4/11 PAE Olympiakos SFP 1-1 PSV D

Leverkusen Recent Form — Last 5

3 W · 1 D · 1 L
▲
▼
28/1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3-0 Villarreal CF W 2.05
20/1 PAE Olympiakos SFP 2-0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen L 1.28
10/12 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-2 Newcastle United FC D
25/11 Manchester City FC 0-2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen W
5/11 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0-1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen W
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Goalkeeper Crisis: Bayer Leverkusen starting GK Mark Flekken is sidelined with a knee ligament injury, forcing backup Janis Blaswich into a high-pressure knockout debut.

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H2H Psychological Edge: Olympiakos defeated Leverkusen 2-0 just four weeks ago (January 20, 2026) and enters this fixture on a three-match Champions League winning streak.

person 3

Efficiency vs. Volume: Olympiakos is significantly overperforming their xG (4 goals from 2.8 xG in recent matches), while Leverkusen has historically struggled in Greece, failing to win there since 1993.

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Injuries & Absentees

Bayer Leverkusen faces a massive 'Replacement Impact' issue: they are missing first-choice GK Mark Flekken, winger Nathan Tella (foot), and midfielder Eliesse Ben Seghir (ankle). The absence of Flekken is critical as it destabilizes a defense already missing Edmond Tapsoba's full fitness. Olympiakos is largely healthy, though long-term absentee Theofanis Bakoulas remains out. However, Olympiakos starters Taremi, Hezze, and Dani García must play cautiously as they are one booking away from a second-leg suspension.

The analyses and predictions on this page are generated by artificial intelligence and are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. This is not gambling advice.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen?

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 with a win probability of 35% for Olympiakos, 28% draw and 37% for Leverkusen.

What is the recent form of Olympiakos and Leverkusen?

Olympiakos form (last 5): 3W-1D-1L. Leverkusen form (last 5): 3W-1D-1L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen?

Bayer Leverkusen faces a massive 'Replacement Impact' issue: they are missing first-choice GK Mark Flekken, winger Nathan Tella (foot), and midfielder Eliesse Ben Seghir (ankle). The absence of Flekken is critical as it destabilizes a defense already missing Edmond Tapsoba's full fitness. Olympiakos is largely healthy, though long-term absentee Theofanis Bakoulas remains out. However, Olympiakos starters Taremi, Hezze, and Dani García must play cautiously as they are one booking away from a second-leg suspension.

What are the current standings for Olympiakos and Leverkusen in the UEFA Champions League?

Olympiakos are 18th in the UEFA Champions League with 11 points from 8 games. Leverkusen are 16th with 12 points from 8 games.

What time does Olympiakos vs Leverkusen kick off?

Olympiakos vs Leverkusen kicks off on Wednesday, 18 February 2026 at 21:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Champions League.

Who is the referee for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen?

The referee for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen in the Champions League is João Pinheiro.

What are the key factors for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen: 1. Goalkeeper Crisis: Bayer Leverkusen starting GK Mark Flekken is sidelined with a knee ligament injury, forcing backup Janis Blaswich into a high-pressure knockout debut. 2. H2H Psychological Edge: Olympiakos defeated Leverkusen 2-0 just four weeks ago (January 20, 2026) and enters this fixture on a three-match Champions League winning streak. 3. Efficiency vs. Volume: Olympiakos is significantly overperforming their xG (4 goals from 2.8 xG in recent matches), while Leverkusen has historically struggled in Greece, failing to win there since 1993..

What are the Coach AI odds for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen?

Coach AI calculates the following outcome probabilities for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen: Olympiakos wins 35%, draw 28%, Leverkusen wins 37%. The most likely outcome is Leverkusen with 37%.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.