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SL Benfica vs Real Madrid — Champions League Prediction 17 February 2026

SL Benfica
SL Benfica
Champions League
1
VS
1
schedule 17 Feb, 20:00 · Referee: François Letexier (France)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 22 Jul 2026

Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Final result
0 – 1
CoachAI prediction
1 – 1
✗ Outcome incorrect
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Coach AI predicts a score of 1-1 for SL Benfica vs Real Madrid in the Champions League. Real Madrid is the favourite with a 50% win probability. SL Benfica has a 25% chance of winning and 25% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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SL Benfica vs Real Madrid

This is a high-stakes Champions League Knockout Play-off first leg, occurring just three weeks after Benfica's shocking 4-2 win over Madrid in the league phase. That result forced Madrid into this extra playoff round, creating an intense 'revenge' narrative. The match will be officiated by François Letexier in cool, clear Lisbon conditions (13°C), which favors a high-tempo but controlled game.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

30%
40%
30%
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Scenario Explanation

The Narrative: While the public expects another high-scoring thriller following the 4-2 result in January, tactical adjustments will dominate. Mourinho will prioritize defensive solidity to ensure Benfica remains in the tie for the second leg, while Arbeloa's Madrid, stung by their previous collapse, will be more conservative with their high line. Value Tip: The market is likely over-adjusting for goals based on the last head-to-head; the 'Under 2.5' or 'Draw' represents the best value. Probability Estimates: Home Win 30%, Draw 40%, Away Win 30%. Madrid has the superior individual talent in Mbappe and Vinícius, but the loss of Bellingham’s late-box arrivals makes breaking down a Mourinho-led defense significantly harder.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

League phase

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
1 Arsenal FC 8 8 0 0 +19 24
2 FC Bayern München 8 7 0 1 +14 21
3 Liverpool FC 8 6 0 2 +12 18
4 Tottenham Hotspur FC 8 5 2 1 +10 17
5 FC Barcelona 8 5 1 2 +8 16
6 Chelsea FC 8 5 1 2 +7 16
7 Sporting Clube de Portugal 8 5 1 2 +6 16
8 Manchester City FC 8 5 1 2 +6 16
9 Real Madrid CF 8 5 0 3 +9 15
10 FC Internazionale Milano 8 5 0 3 +8 15
11 Paris Saint-Germain FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
12 Newcastle United FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
13 Juventus FC 8 3 4 1 +4 13
14 Club Atlético de Madrid 8 4 1 3 +2 13
15 Atalanta BC 8 4 1 3 0 13
16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 3 3 2 -1 12
17 Borussia Dortmund 8 3 2 3 +2 11
18 PAE Olympiakos SFP 8 3 2 3 -4 11
19 Club Brugge KV 8 3 1 4 -2 10
20 Galatasaray SK 8 3 1 4 -2 10
21 AS Monaco FC 8 2 4 2 -6 10
22 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 8 3 1 4 -8 10
23 FK Bodø/Glimt 8 2 3 3 -1 9
24 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 8 3 0 5 -2 9
25 Olympique de Marseille 8 3 0 5 -3 9
26 Paphos FC 8 2 3 3 -3 9
27 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 8 3 0 5 -9 9
28 PSV 8 2 2 4 0 8
29 Athletic Club 8 2 2 4 -5 8
30 SSC Napoli 8 2 2 4 -6 8
31 FC København 8 2 2 4 -9 8
32 AFC Ajax 8 2 0 6 -13 6
33 Eintracht Frankfurt 8 1 1 6 -11 4
34 SK Slavia Praha 8 0 3 5 -14 3
35 Villarreal CF 8 0 1 7 -13 1
36 FK Kairat 8 0 1 7 -15 1
SL Benfica
Real Madrid
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Coach AI Odds

SL Benfica
25% · 25% · 50%
Real Madrid
W D L

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.35

Home xG

1.95

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

SL Benfica Recent Form — Last 5

3 W · 0 D · 2 L
▲
▼
28/1 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 4-2 Real Madrid CF W 1.25
21/1 Juventus FC 2-0 Sport Lisboa e Benfica L 1.43
10/12 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2-0 SSC Napoli W
25/11 AFC Ajax 0-2 Sport Lisboa e Benfica W
5/11 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0-1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen L

Real Madrid Recent Form — Last 5

2 W · 0 D · 3 L
▲
28/1 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 4-2 Real Madrid CF L 1.95
20/1 Real Madrid CF 6-1 AS Monaco FC W 2.15
10/12 Real Madrid CF 1-2 Manchester City FC L
26/11 PAE Olympiakos SFP 3-4 Real Madrid CF W
4/11 Liverpool FC 1-0 Real Madrid CF L
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Benfica's xG Regression: After scoring 4 goals from just 1.25 xG in the previous meeting, a significant downward regression in clinical finishing is statistically imminent.

trending_up 2

Mourinho vs. Arbeloa: The tactical gap favors José Mourinho's experience in knockout formats over Arbeloa’s recent promotion; expect a highly disciplined, low-block defensive setup from Benfica.

person 3

Madrid's Creative Void: The simultaneous absence of Jude Bellingham (hamstring) and Rodrygo (suspension) strips Real Madrid of their primary transition engine and secondary goal threat.

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Injuries & Absentees

Real Madrid faces a crisis in spine and depth: Jude Bellingham is out until April, Éder Militão is a long-term absentee, and both Raúl Asencio and Rodrygo are suspended following red cards in the Jan 28th clash. The burden falls on teenager Dean Huijsen in defense and Arda Güler in creativity. Benfica is missing the tactical versatility of Fredrik Aursnes and likely Alexander Bah (cruciate), forcing a reliance on Samuel Dahl and the veteran Otamendi to stabilize the backline.

The analyses and predictions on this page are generated by artificial intelligence and are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. This is not gambling advice.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for SL Benfica vs Real Madrid?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-1 with a win probability of 25% for SL Benfica, 25% draw and 50% for Real Madrid.

What is the recent form of SL Benfica and Real Madrid?

SL Benfica form (last 5): 3W-0D-2L. Real Madrid form (last 5): 2W-0D-3L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for SL Benfica vs Real Madrid?

Real Madrid faces a crisis in spine and depth: Jude Bellingham is out until April, Éder Militão is a long-term absentee, and both Raúl Asencio and Rodrygo are suspended following red cards in the Jan 28th clash. The burden falls on teenager Dean Huijsen in defense and Arda Güler in creativity. Benfica is missing the tactical versatility of Fredrik Aursnes and likely Alexander Bah (cruciate), forcing a reliance on Samuel Dahl and the veteran Otamendi to stabilize the backline.

What are the current standings for SL Benfica and Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League?

SL Benfica are 24th in the UEFA Champions League with 9 points from 8 games. Real Madrid are 9th with 15 points from 8 games.

What time does SL Benfica vs Real Madrid kick off?

SL Benfica vs Real Madrid kicks off on Tuesday, 17 February 2026 at 21:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Champions League.

Who is the referee for SL Benfica vs Real Madrid?

The referee for SL Benfica vs Real Madrid in the Champions League is François Letexier.

What are the key factors for SL Benfica vs Real Madrid?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for SL Benfica vs Real Madrid: 1. Benfica's xG Regression: After scoring 4 goals from just 1.25 xG in the previous meeting, a significant downward regression in clinical finishing is statistically imminent. 2. Mourinho vs. Arbeloa: The tactical gap favors José Mourinho's experience in knockout formats over Arbeloa’s recent promotion; expect a highly disciplined, low-block defensive setup from Benfica. 3. Madrid's Creative Void: The simultaneous absence of Jude Bellingham (hamstring) and Rodrygo (suspension) strips Real Madrid of their primary transition engine and secondary goal threat..

What are the Coach AI odds for SL Benfica vs Real Madrid?

Coach AI calculates the following outcome probabilities for SL Benfica vs Real Madrid: SL Benfica wins 25%, draw 25%, Real Madrid wins 50%. The most likely outcome is Real Madrid with 50%.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.