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Everton
Everton
Premier League
1
VS
1
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 08 May 2026

Leeds United
Leeds United
Final result
1 – 1
CoachAI prediction
1 – 1
★ Exact score!
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Match Insight

This is a Monday night clash at the new Hill Dickinson Stadium. Everton sits 10th but is only 4 points off the top 4, making this a vital push for Europe. Leeds, in 16th, has an 8-point cushion from the drop zone. The weather is expected to be typical January fare: 41°F (5°C) with 13mph winds, favoring a physical, low-scoring battle.

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Match Scenario's

40%
35%
25%
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Scenario Explanation

1 D3 L7) but typically rises to the occasion against bigger sides, evidenced by recent draws against Liverpool and Man Utd. The 'Value Tip' lies in the 'Under 2.5 Goals' market or the 'Draw,' as the market may overvalue Everton’s 10th-place ranking while ignoring their specific home-form struggles and creative injury crisis. Probability: Draw 40%, Everton Win 35%, Leeds Win 25%.

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.42

Home xG

1.38

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Everton FORM

0 W · 0 D · 0 L
18/1 1-0 Win vs. Aston Villa FC 1.25
7/1 1-1 Draw vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
4/1 2-4 Loss vs. Brentford FC
30/12 2-0 Win vs. Nottingham Forest FC
27/12 0-0 Draw vs. Burnley FC

Leeds United FORM

0 W · 0 D · 0 L
▼
17/1 1-0 Win vs. Fulham FC 1.56
7/1 3-4 Loss vs. Newcastle United FC
4/1 1-1 Draw vs. Manchester United FC
1/1 0-0 Draw vs. Liverpool FC
28/12 1-1 Draw vs. Sunderland AFC
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Key Factors

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Creativity Crisis: Everton lose on-loan star Jack Grealish to a stress fracture; he was the league's top open-play chance creator (38 chances) and Everton's primary assist provider.

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The Homecoming Narrative: Former Everton talisman Dominic Calvert-Lewin returns to Merseyside in peak form, leading Leeds with 9 league goals this season.

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Stadium Curse: Despite being 10th, Everton have struggled at their new Hill Dickinson Stadium, going winless in their last four home matches (L3 D1) compared to a strong away record.

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Injuries & Absentees

Everton is severely depleted in central areas; Jack Grealish is out long-term, and Michael Keane is suspended. Key defenders Jarrad Branthwaite and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall are doubtful, forcing David Moyes to rely on a patched-up backline. Leeds is missing center-back Jaka Bijol and winger Daniel James, while midfield engine Anton Stach is only partially fit after an adductor issue.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Everton vs Leeds United?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-1 with a win probability of 39% for Everton, 30% draw and 31% for Leeds United.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.