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Newcastle
Newcastle
Premier League
1
VS
2
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 08 May 2026

Everton
Everton
Final result
2 – 3
CoachAI prediction
1 – 2
✓ Outcome correct
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Match Insight

This is a clash of identities. Newcastle is in a 'European hangover' phase, sitting 11th and prioritizing cup competitions. Everton, currently 9th, has reinvented themselves as away-day specialists under David Moyes. The weather at St. James' Park is expected to be cold (6°C) with a high probability of rain, conditions that historically favor a physical, defensive Everton side over a fatigued Newcastle trying to play expansively.

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Match Scenario's

45%
35%
20%
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Scenario Explanation

Scenario 1: Everton exploits Newcastle's tired legs and missing midfield pivot to secure a clinical counter-attacking win (45% likelihood). Scenario 2: A fatigued Newcastle uses home energy to salvage a gritty draw against Everton’s low block (35% likelihood). Scenario 3: Newcastle’s individual quality (Gordon/Isak) overcomes fatigue for a narrow home win (20% likelihood). Given Newcastle's poor recent league form (1-0-4 in last 5) and Everton's elite away record, the 1-2 scoreline reflects the tactical advantage of the visitors.

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.82

Home xG

1.12

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Newcastle FORM

3 W · 0 D · 2 L
▲
▲
24/2 Newcastle United FC 3-2 Qarabağ Ağdam FK W 2.25
21/2 Manchester City FC 2-1 Newcastle United FC L 1.15
18/2 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 1-6 Newcastle United FC W 1.95
10/2 Tottenham Hotspur FC 1-2 Newcastle United FC W 1.62
7/2 Newcastle United FC 2-3 Brentford FC L 1.82

Everton FORM

1 W · 2 D · 2 L
▼
▲
23/2 Everton FC 0-1 Manchester United FC L 1.23
10/2 Everton FC 1-2 AFC Bournemouth L 1.35
7/2 Fulham FC 1-2 Everton FC W 1.16
31/1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1-1 Everton FC D 1.15
26/1 Everton FC 1-1 Leeds United FC D 1.42
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Newcastle enters with severe fatigue after a high-intensity 3-2 midweek Champions League victory, while Everton has had a full week of rest.

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Everton possesses the Premier League's best away defense this season, conceding only 12 goals on their travels and losing just 1 of their last 9 away matches.

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The absence of Bruno Guimarães and Fabian Schär leaves a massive void in Newcastle’s central progression and defensive leadership.

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Tactical mismatch: Newcastle's high-pressing style (10.22 PPDA) will likely struggle to maintain intensity against David Moyes' pragmatic, low-block counter-attacking setup.

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Injuries & Absentees

Newcastle is decimated in key areas: captain Bruno Guimarães (hamstring) and defensive anchor Fabian Schär (ankle) are out, significantly weakening their spine. While Joelinton and Sven Botman have returned, the loss of Tino Livramento and Lewis Miley limits rotation. Everton is missing Jack Grealish (foot) and Carlos Alcaraz, but their defensive core remains largely intact despite Jake O’Brien's suspension.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Newcastle vs Everton?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 with a win probability of 55% for Newcastle, 24% draw and 21% for Everton.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.