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Newcastle
Newcastle
Premier League
1
VS
1
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 08 May 2026

Sunderland
Sunderland
Final result
1 – 2
CoachAI prediction
1 – 1
✗ Outcome incorrect
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Match Insight

This is the first Premier League Tyne-Wear derby at St. James' Park since 2016. Referee Anthony Taylor has been appointed to manage the high-intensity atmosphere. Weather is expected to be cold (approx. 4°C) with overcast skies, favoring a physical, 'gritty' encounter rather than a fluid tactical display.

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Match Scenario's

45%
30%
25%
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Scenario Explanation

1 draw. Newcastle possesses superior individual talent but is psychologically fragile and physically drained following the Barcelona disaster. Without Guimarães to unlock the defense, they will struggle to break down Régis Le Bris's organized 'giant-killer' setup. A 1-0 Newcastle win (30% likelihood) depends entirely on Anthony Gordon’s individual brilliance early on. A Sunderland 0-1 smash-and-grab (25% likelihood) remains a threat if they exploit Newcastle's defensive gaps on the counter-attack, similar to the reverse fixture.

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.80

Home xG

1.15

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Newcastle FORM

2 W · 1 D · 2 L
▲
▼
18/3 FC Barcelona 7-2 Newcastle United FC L 1.22
14/3 Chelsea FC 0-1 Newcastle United FC W 1.45
10/3 Newcastle United FC 1-1 FC Barcelona D 1.68
4/3 Newcastle United FC 2-1 Manchester United FC W 1.76
28/2 Newcastle United FC 2-3 Everton FC L 1.82

Sunderland FORM

1 W · 1 D · 3 L
▼
▼
14/3 Sunderland AFC 0-1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC L 1.25
3/3 Leeds United FC 0-1 Sunderland AFC W 1.05
28/2 AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland AFC D 1.12
22/2 Sunderland AFC 1-3 Fulham FC L 1.35
11/2 Sunderland AFC 0-1 Liverpool FC L 1.25
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

High Fatigue vs. High Motivation: Newcastle is coming off a grueling 7-2 Champions League defeat to Barcelona, while Sunderland has had a full week to prepare for the derby.

trending_up 2

Midfield Vacuum: The absence of Bruno Guimarães and the potential lack of match fitness for Sandro Tonali (groin) significantly reduces Newcastle’s ability to control the tempo against Sunderland's compact 4-4-2 low block.

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Tactical Stalemate: Sunderland ranks among the lowest in the league for shot volume but highest for defensive clearances; Newcastle’s high xG (avg 1.58 last 5) will be tested by a Sunderland side that successfully parked the bus in their 1-0 win in December.

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Injuries & Absentees

Newcastle is severely weakened in central areas with captain Bruno Guimarães (hamstring) and Fabian Schär (ankle) sidelined, removing their primary progressive passers. Sunderland faces a 'winger crisis' with four wide players out (Ta Bi, Traore, Mundle, Angulo), likely forcing them into an even narrower, more defensive tactical setup.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Newcastle vs Sunderland?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-1 with a win probability of 57% for Newcastle, 24% draw and 19% for Sunderland.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.