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Norway vs France — World Cup 2026 Prediction 26 June 2026

Norway
Norway
World Cup 2026
1
VS
2
schedule 26 Jun, 19:00
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 22 Jun 2026

France
France
Kickoff in

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 for Norway vs France in the World Cup 2026. France is the favourite with a 53% win probability. Norway has a 21% chance of winning and 26% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Norway vs France

This match at Gillette Stadium (Boston) is likely the decider for Group I supremacy. The weather is expected to be mild (low 80s°F), which favors the Scandinavian side compared to the extreme heat in southern venues. France carries the weight of being tournament favorites, while Norway is operating as a dangerous 'dark horse' with the world's most efficient striker. Psychologically, France's squad depth is superior, but Norway's tactical focus on a 'Haaland-centric' counter-attack is tailor-made for tournament upsets.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

58%
27%
15%

France Narrow Victory

58%

France dominates possession and survives a Haaland goal to win via their superior wing play and depth.

High Scoring Draw

27%

Norway exploits France's defensive injury concerns on the counter, leading to a 2-2 stalemate.

French Depth Overload

15%

France's substitutes (Barcola, Olise) overwhelm a tiring Norwegian defense late in the second half.

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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Group I

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
1 Norway 1 1 0 0 +3 3
2 France 1 1 0 0 +2 3
3 Senegal 1 0 0 1 -2 0
4 Iraq 1 0 0 1 -3 0
Norway
France
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Fan Predictions

What Football Meister players predict for this match

Norway D France
15%
77%
8% 15% 77%

Most predicted scorelines

1-2 33%
1-3 16%
0-2 14%
1-1 8%
0-3 5%

These are predictions made by real Football Meister players — not AI-generated data.

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Coach AI Odds

Norway
21% · 26% · 53%
France
W D L

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.15

Home xG

1.95

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Norway Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 0 D · 0 L
16/6 Iraq 1-4 Norway W 2.60

France Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 0 D · 0 L
16/6 France 3-1 Senegal W 1.90
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

High Finishing Efficiency: Both teams significantly overperformed their xG in Matchday 1 (Norway 4 goals from 2.60 xG; France 3 goals from 1.90 xG), indicating world-class clinical finishing from Haaland and Mbappé.

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France Defensive Vulnerability: William Saliba is reportedly playing through a back injury and is not at 100%, which creates a specific vulnerability against Haaland's physical runs in behind.

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Tactical Mismatch: France's high defensive line and possession-heavy style (PPDA ~8.5) play directly into Norway's transition strength, where Martin Ødegaard's vision can exploit gaps for Haaland and Nusa.

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Injuries & Absentees

Norway has a fully fit squad after Julian Ryerson and David Møller Wolfe recovered from minor knocks sustained against Iraq. France faces concerns; center-back William Saliba is 'gritting his teeth' through a back injury, and midfield anchor Aurélien Tchouaméni recently missed a training session (June 21), potentially forcing a start for Eduardo Camavinga or Manu Koné which alters the team's defensive stability.

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Key Players

Norway

Erling Haaland ST
personIn Form
Martin Ødegaard CAM
personKey Threat

France

Kylian Mbappé LW
personIn Form
William Saliba CB
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The analyses and predictions on this page are generated by artificial intelligence and are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. This is not gambling advice.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Norway vs France?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 with a win probability of 21% for Norway, 26% draw and 53% for France.

What is the recent form of Norway and France?

Norway form (last 5): 1W-0D-0L. France form (last 5): 1W-0D-0L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Norway vs France?

Norway has a fully fit squad after Julian Ryerson and David Møller Wolfe recovered from minor knocks sustained against Iraq. France faces concerns; center-back William Saliba is 'gritting his teeth' through a back injury, and midfield anchor Aurélien Tchouaméni recently missed a training session (June 21), potentially forcing a start for Eduardo Camavinga or Manu Koné which alters the team's defensive stability.

What are the possible match scenarios for Norway vs France?

France Narrow Victory (58%): France dominates possession and survives a Haaland goal to win via their superior wing play and depth. — High Scoring Draw (27%): Norway exploits France's defensive injury concerns on the counter, leading to a 2-2 stalemate. — French Depth Overload (15%): France's substitutes (Barcola, Olise) overwhelm a tiring Norwegian defense late in the second half.

What do football fans and other predictors think about Norway vs France?

Based on 93 predictors, 8% back a home win for Norway, 15% a draw, and 77% an away win for France. The most predicted scoreline is 1-2. Fans are more cautious than Coach AI on Norway: fans pick 8% home win, Coach AI calculates 21%.

What is the most popular prediction for Norway vs France?

The most predicted scoreline for Norway vs France is 1-2. A total of 93 predictors have made their pick — 8% back Norway, 15% a draw and 77% France.

How confident are fans about Norway vs France?

77% of fans predict a win for France, with an average confidence of 74% (high confidence). Notably, the 15% backing a draw are actually more confident (100%) than the majority — a sign this match is less clear-cut than the vote split suggests.

What are the current standings for Norway and France in the FIFA World Cup?

Norway are 1st in the FIFA World Cup with 3 points from 1 games. France are 2nd with 3 points from 1 games.

What time does Norway vs France kick off?

Norway vs France kicks off on Friday, 26 June 2026 at 21:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the World Cup 2026.

What are the key factors for Norway vs France?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Norway vs France: 1. High Finishing Efficiency: Both teams significantly overperformed their xG in Matchday 1 (Norway 4 goals from 2.60 xG; France 3 goals from 1.90 xG), indicating world-class clinical finishing from Haaland and Mbappé. 2. France Defensive Vulnerability: William Saliba is reportedly playing through a back injury and is not at 100%, which creates a specific vulnerability against Haaland's physical runs in behind. 3. Tactical Mismatch: France's high defensive line and possession-heavy style (PPDA ~8.5) play directly into Norway's transition strength, where Martin Ødegaard's vision can exploit gaps for Haaland and Nusa..

Who are the key players for Norway vs France?

Coach AI has identified the following key players for Norway vs France. Norway: Erling Haaland (In Form), Martin Ødegaard (Key Threat). France: Kylian Mbappé (In Form), William Saliba (Doubtful).

What are the Coach AI odds for Norway vs France?

Coach AI calculates the following outcome probabilities for Norway vs France: Norway wins 21%, draw 26%, France wins 53%. The most likely outcome is France with 53%.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.