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Arsenal vs Leverkusen — Champions League Prediction 17 March 2026

Arsenal
Arsenal
Champions League
2
VS
0
schedule 17 Mar, 20:00 · Referee: Danny Makkelie (Netherlands)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 22 Jul 2026

Leverkusen
Leverkusen
Final result
2 – 0
CoachAI prediction
2 – 0
★ Exact score!
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Coach AI predicts a score of 2-0 for Arsenal vs Leverkusen in the Champions League. Arsenal is the favourite with a 73% win probability. Leverkusen has a 10% chance of winning and 17% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Arsenal vs Leverkusen

This is a high-stakes Champions League Round of 16 second leg with the aggregate score tied at 1-1. The Emirates Stadium will be a fortress; Arsenal has won every home CL game this season. Weather conditions are ideal (14°C, sunny intervals), favoring Arsenal's technical possession-based game. Referee Danny Makkelie is known for maintaining game flow, which suits Arsenal's rhythm over Leverkusen's likely disruptive mid-block.

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analytics

Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

65%
25%
10%
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Scenario Explanation

The most likely scenario (65%) is a controlled Arsenal victory where they exploit Leverkusen's makeshift defense early, forcing the visitors to abandon their defensive shape. Given Leverkusen's poor domestic form (16th), their confidence is fragile. Scenario 2 (25%): A narrow 1-0 win for Arsenal if Leverkusen's low block holds firm as it did in the first leg. Scenario 3 (10%): An upset or draw leading to extra time if Arsenal's lack of Ødegaard results in creative stagnation. Ultimately, Arsenal's xG consistency (averaging >2.0) vs. Leverkusen's defensive leakiness makes a 2-0 result the most data-backed outcome.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

League phase

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
1 Arsenal FC 8 8 0 0 +19 24
2 FC Bayern München 8 7 0 1 +14 21
3 Liverpool FC 8 6 0 2 +12 18
4 Tottenham Hotspur FC 8 5 2 1 +10 17
5 FC Barcelona 8 5 1 2 +8 16
6 Chelsea FC 8 5 1 2 +7 16
7 Sporting Clube de Portugal 8 5 1 2 +6 16
8 Manchester City FC 8 5 1 2 +6 16
9 Real Madrid CF 8 5 0 3 +9 15
10 FC Internazionale Milano 8 5 0 3 +8 15
11 Paris Saint-Germain FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
12 Newcastle United FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
13 Juventus FC 8 3 4 1 +4 13
14 Club Atlético de Madrid 8 4 1 3 +2 13
15 Atalanta BC 8 4 1 3 0 13
16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 3 3 2 -1 12
17 Borussia Dortmund 8 3 2 3 +2 11
18 PAE Olympiakos SFP 8 3 2 3 -4 11
19 Club Brugge KV 8 3 1 4 -2 10
20 Galatasaray SK 8 3 1 4 -2 10
21 AS Monaco FC 8 2 4 2 -6 10
22 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 8 3 1 4 -8 10
23 FK Bodø/Glimt 8 2 3 3 -1 9
24 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 8 3 0 5 -2 9
25 Olympique de Marseille 8 3 0 5 -3 9
26 Paphos FC 8 2 3 3 -3 9
27 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 8 3 0 5 -9 9
28 PSV 8 2 2 4 0 8
29 Athletic Club 8 2 2 4 -5 8
30 SSC Napoli 8 2 2 4 -6 8
31 FC København 8 2 2 4 -9 8
32 AFC Ajax 8 2 0 6 -13 6
33 Eintracht Frankfurt 8 1 1 6 -11 4
34 SK Slavia Praha 8 0 3 5 -14 3
35 Villarreal CF 8 0 1 7 -13 1
36 FK Kairat 8 0 1 7 -15 1
Arsenal
Leverkusen
percent

Coach AI Odds

Arsenal
73% · 17% · 10%
Leverkusen
W D L

Projected xG by CoachAI

2.25

Home xG

1.20

Away xG

Upset Chance

Low

Risk of unexpected result

Arsenal Recent Form — Last 5

4 W · 1 D · 0 L
▼
▼
▲
14/3 Arsenal FC 2-0 Everton FC W 2.15
11/3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1-1 Arsenal FC D 1.84
4/3 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-1 Arsenal FC W 1.98
1/3 Arsenal FC 2-1 Chelsea FC W 2.15
22/2 Tottenham Hotspur FC 1-4 Arsenal FC W 2.05

Leverkusen Recent Form — Last 5

2 W · 2 D · 1 L
▼
▼
▲
▼
11/3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1-1 Arsenal FC D 1.68
24/2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0-0 PAE Olympiakos SFP D 1.92
18/2 PAE Olympiakos SFP 0-2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen W 1.67
28/1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3-0 Villarreal CF W 2.05
20/1 PAE Olympiakos SFP 2-0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen L 1.28
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Arsenal's home dominance is statistically elite, averaging 2.88 goals per match while conceding only 0.50 domestically.

trending_up 2

Leverkusen's defensive instability is reflected in their season average of 1.75 goals conceded per match and a precarious 16th place in their domestic league.

person 3

Tactical mismatch: Arsenal's high-intensity press (low PPDA) vs. a Leverkusen side missing key defensive pillars like Loïc Badé and goalkeeper Mark Flekken.

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Injuries & Absentees

Arsenal is significantly impacted by the absence of captain Martin Ødegaard (knee) and the versatile Jurrien Timber (ankle). However, the return of Leandro Trossard and the form of Viktor Gyökeres provide ample offensive depth. Leverkusen is severely weakened defensively with Mark Flekken, Loïc Badé, and Lucas Vázquez all ruled out, forcing Robert Andrich into a makeshift center-back role.

The analyses and predictions on this page are generated by artificial intelligence and are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. This is not gambling advice.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Arsenal vs Leverkusen?

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-0 with a win probability of 73% for Arsenal, 17% draw and 10% for Leverkusen.

What is the recent form of Arsenal and Leverkusen?

Arsenal form (last 5): 4W-1D-0L. Leverkusen form (last 5): 2W-2D-1L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Arsenal vs Leverkusen?

Arsenal is significantly impacted by the absence of captain Martin Ødegaard (knee) and the versatile Jurrien Timber (ankle). However, the return of Leandro Trossard and the form of Viktor Gyökeres provide ample offensive depth. Leverkusen is severely weakened defensively with Mark Flekken, Loïc Badé, and Lucas Vázquez all ruled out, forcing Robert Andrich into a makeshift center-back role.

What are the current standings for Arsenal and Leverkusen in the UEFA Champions League?

Arsenal are 1st in the UEFA Champions League with 24 points from 8 games. Leverkusen are 16th with 12 points from 8 games.

What time does Arsenal vs Leverkusen kick off?

Arsenal vs Leverkusen kicks off on Tuesday, 17 March 2026 at 21:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Champions League.

Who is the referee for Arsenal vs Leverkusen?

The referee for Arsenal vs Leverkusen in the Champions League is Danny Makkelie.

What are the key factors for Arsenal vs Leverkusen?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Arsenal vs Leverkusen: 1. Arsenal's home dominance is statistically elite, averaging 2.88 goals per match while conceding only 0.50 domestically. 2. Leverkusen's defensive instability is reflected in their season average of 1.75 goals conceded per match and a precarious 16th place in their domestic league. 3. Tactical mismatch: Arsenal's high-intensity press (low PPDA) vs. a Leverkusen side missing key defensive pillars like Loïc Badé and goalkeeper Mark Flekken..

What are the Coach AI odds for Arsenal vs Leverkusen?

Coach AI calculates the following outcome probabilities for Arsenal vs Leverkusen: Arsenal wins 73%, draw 17%, Leverkusen wins 10%. The most likely outcome is Arsenal with 73%.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.