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Atalanta vs Dortmund — Champions League Prediction 25 February 2026

Atalanta
Atalanta
Champions League
2
VS
1
schedule 25 Feb, 17:45 · Referee: José Sánchez Martínez (Spain)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 22 Jul 2026

Dortmund
Dortmund
Final result
4 – 1
CoachAI prediction
2 – 1
✓ Outcome correct
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Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 for Atalanta vs Dortmund in the Champions League. Atalanta is the favourite with a 45% win probability. Dortmund has a 30% chance of winning and 25% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Atalanta vs Dortmund

This is a second-leg knockout tie with Dortmund holding a 2-0 lead. History favors BVB, who have never lost a European tie after a two-goal first-leg lead. However, the atmosphere in Bergamo and the expected cold, rainy weather will favor Atalanta's physical, high-intensity style. Spanish referee Sánchez Martínez is known for a high card average in continental games, which could punish a desperate Dortmund defense.

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analytics

Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

50%
25%
15%
analytics
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Scenario Explanation

1) Scenario A (50% likelihood): Atalanta wins 2-1. Their high volume of shots (averaging 13.6 per home game) eventually breaks through, but Dortmund's clinical counter-attack with Guirassy finds a vital goal to secure their overall progression. 2) Scenario B (25% likelihood): 1-1 Draw. Dortmund manages the clock effectively, and Atalanta's underperformance in UCL xG (recent trend) continues without CDK's creativity. 3) Scenario C (15% likelihood): 3-1 Atalanta win. The makeshift BVB defense collapses early under the Bergamo atmosphere, forcing extra time. 4) Scenario D (10% likelihood): 0-1 Dortmund win. Atalanta overcommits too early and is punished by BVB's transition speed.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

League phase

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
1 Arsenal FC 8 8 0 0 +19 24
2 FC Bayern München 8 7 0 1 +14 21
3 Liverpool FC 8 6 0 2 +12 18
4 Tottenham Hotspur FC 8 5 2 1 +10 17
5 FC Barcelona 8 5 1 2 +8 16
6 Chelsea FC 8 5 1 2 +7 16
7 Sporting Clube de Portugal 8 5 1 2 +6 16
8 Manchester City FC 8 5 1 2 +6 16
9 Real Madrid CF 8 5 0 3 +9 15
10 FC Internazionale Milano 8 5 0 3 +8 15
11 Paris Saint-Germain FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
12 Newcastle United FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
13 Juventus FC 8 3 4 1 +4 13
14 Club Atlético de Madrid 8 4 1 3 +2 13
15 Atalanta BC 8 4 1 3 0 13
16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 3 3 2 -1 12
17 Borussia Dortmund 8 3 2 3 +2 11
18 PAE Olympiakos SFP 8 3 2 3 -4 11
19 Club Brugge KV 8 3 1 4 -2 10
20 Galatasaray SK 8 3 1 4 -2 10
21 AS Monaco FC 8 2 4 2 -6 10
22 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 8 3 1 4 -8 10
23 FK Bodø/Glimt 8 2 3 3 -1 9
24 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 8 3 0 5 -2 9
25 Olympique de Marseille 8 3 0 5 -3 9
26 Paphos FC 8 2 3 3 -3 9
27 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 8 3 0 5 -9 9
28 PSV 8 2 2 4 0 8
29 Athletic Club 8 2 2 4 -5 8
30 SSC Napoli 8 2 2 4 -6 8
31 FC København 8 2 2 4 -9 8
32 AFC Ajax 8 2 0 6 -13 6
33 Eintracht Frankfurt 8 1 1 6 -11 4
34 SK Slavia Praha 8 0 3 5 -14 3
35 Villarreal CF 8 0 1 7 -13 1
36 FK Kairat 8 0 1 7 -15 1
Atalanta
Dortmund
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Coach AI Odds

Atalanta
45% · 25% · 30%
Dortmund
W D L

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.82

Home xG

1.38

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Atalanta Recent Form — Last 5

2 W · 0 D · 3 L
▼
▼
17/2 Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Atalanta BC L 1.76
28/1 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 Atalanta BC L 1.68
21/1 Atalanta BC 2-3 Athletic Club L 1.92
9/12 Atalanta BC 2-1 Chelsea FC W
26/11 Eintracht Frankfurt 0-3 Atalanta BC W

Dortmund Recent Form — Last 5

2 W · 1 D · 2 L
▼
▼
17/2 Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Atalanta BC W 1.88
28/1 Borussia Dortmund 0-2 FC Internazionale Milano L 1.92
20/1 Tottenham Hotspur FC 2-0 Borussia Dortmund L 2.05
10/12 Borussia Dortmund 2-2 FK Bodø/Glimt D
25/11 Borussia Dortmund 4-0 Villarreal CF W
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Dortmund's defensive crisis: The absence of key center-backs Nico Schlotterbeck and Niklas Süle, plus defensive anchor Emre Can, leaves BVB's backline extremely vulnerable to high pressure.

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Atalanta's home dominance: 'La Dea' is unbeaten at home in 2026 and has won 10 of their last 12 matches at the Gewiss Stadium, recently defeating Napoli and Juventus there.

person 3

Aggregate urgency: Trailing 2-0 from the first leg, Atalanta will employ an ultra-aggressive high-press (PPDA) from the start, forcing Dortmund's makeshift defense into errors.

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Injuries & Absentees

Atalanta is missing significant creative output with Charles De Ketelaere (meniscus) and Giacomo Raspadori (muscle) sidelined. However, the impact on Dortmund is arguably more severe; without Schlotterbeck, Süle, and Can, Niko Kovac is forced to use an experimental defensive trio, significantly reducing their ability to play out from the back under pressure.

The analyses and predictions on this page are generated by artificial intelligence and are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. This is not gambling advice.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Atalanta vs Dortmund?

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 with a win probability of 45% for Atalanta, 25% draw and 30% for Dortmund.

What is the recent form of Atalanta and Dortmund?

Atalanta form (last 5): 2W-0D-3L. Dortmund form (last 5): 2W-1D-2L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Atalanta vs Dortmund?

Atalanta is missing significant creative output with Charles De Ketelaere (meniscus) and Giacomo Raspadori (muscle) sidelined. However, the impact on Dortmund is arguably more severe; without Schlotterbeck, Süle, and Can, Niko Kovac is forced to use an experimental defensive trio, significantly reducing their ability to play out from the back under pressure.

What are the current standings for Atalanta and Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League?

Atalanta are 15th in the UEFA Champions League with 13 points from 8 games. Dortmund are 17th with 11 points from 8 games.

What time does Atalanta vs Dortmund kick off?

Atalanta vs Dortmund kicks off on Wednesday, 25 February 2026 at 18:45 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Champions League.

Who is the referee for Atalanta vs Dortmund?

The referee for Atalanta vs Dortmund in the Champions League is José Sánchez Martínez.

What are the key factors for Atalanta vs Dortmund?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Atalanta vs Dortmund: 1. Dortmund's defensive crisis: The absence of key center-backs Nico Schlotterbeck and Niklas Süle, plus defensive anchor Emre Can, leaves BVB's backline extremely vulnerable to high pressure. 2. Atalanta's home dominance: 'La Dea' is unbeaten at home in 2026 and has won 10 of their last 12 matches at the Gewiss Stadium, recently defeating Napoli and Juventus there. 3. Aggregate urgency: Trailing 2-0 from the first leg, Atalanta will employ an ultra-aggressive high-press (PPDA) from the start, forcing Dortmund's makeshift defense into errors..

What are the Coach AI odds for Atalanta vs Dortmund?

Coach AI calculates the following outcome probabilities for Atalanta vs Dortmund: Atalanta wins 45%, draw 25%, Dortmund wins 30%. The most likely outcome is Atalanta with 45%.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.