Football Meister Logo Play for free →

Real Madrid vs SL Benfica — Champions League Prediction 25 February 2026

Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Champions League
2
VS
1
schedule 25 Feb, 20:00 · Referee: Slavko Vinčič (Slovenia)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 22 Jul 2026

SL Benfica
SL Benfica
Final result
2 – 1
CoachAI prediction
2 – 1
★ Exact score!
Kickoff in —

Discuss this match with AI

ChatGPT Claude Perplexity Google AI Grok Reddit

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 for Real Madrid vs SL Benfica in the Champions League. Real Madrid is the favourite with a 65% win probability. SL Benfica has a 15% chance of winning and 20% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

lightbulb

Real Madrid vs SL Benfica

This is a high-tension 2nd leg following Madrid's 1-0 win in Lisbon. The match is psychologically charged due to racism allegations involving Vinícius Jr. and Prestianni from the first leg. Tactically, Benfica must attack to overturn the deficit, playing into the hands of Madrid's world-class counter-attacking transition, even without Mbappé. Referee Slavko Vinčić is a favorable omen for Madrid, having officiated their 15th UCL title win.

#RMABEN #ChampionsLeague #FootballMeister

analytics

Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

55%
30%
15%
analytics
explore

Scenario Explanation

Scenario 1 (55%): Real Madrid exploits the spaces left by an advancing Benfica. Vinícius Jr., in peak form, leads a clinical counter-attack to secure a narrow home win. Scenario 2 (30%): Benfica's high-pressing intensity causes errors in Madrid's makeshift defense, leading to a high-scoring draw (2-2) that sees Madrid through on aggregate. Scenario 3 (15%): An inspired Anatoliy Trubin keeps Benfica in the game, but Madrid's experience in knockout management produces a low-scoring 1-1 or 1-0.
table_chart

Current Standings

Position in the competition

League phase

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
1 Arsenal FC 8 8 0 0 +19 24
2 FC Bayern München 8 7 0 1 +14 21
3 Liverpool FC 8 6 0 2 +12 18
4 Tottenham Hotspur FC 8 5 2 1 +10 17
5 FC Barcelona 8 5 1 2 +8 16
6 Chelsea FC 8 5 1 2 +7 16
7 Sporting Clube de Portugal 8 5 1 2 +6 16
8 Manchester City FC 8 5 1 2 +6 16
9 Real Madrid CF 8 5 0 3 +9 15
10 FC Internazionale Milano 8 5 0 3 +8 15
11 Paris Saint-Germain FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
12 Newcastle United FC 8 4 2 2 +10 14
13 Juventus FC 8 3 4 1 +4 13
14 Club Atlético de Madrid 8 4 1 3 +2 13
15 Atalanta BC 8 4 1 3 0 13
16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 3 3 2 -1 12
17 Borussia Dortmund 8 3 2 3 +2 11
18 PAE Olympiakos SFP 8 3 2 3 -4 11
19 Club Brugge KV 8 3 1 4 -2 10
20 Galatasaray SK 8 3 1 4 -2 10
21 AS Monaco FC 8 2 4 2 -6 10
22 Qarabağ Ağdam FK 8 3 1 4 -8 10
23 FK Bodø/Glimt 8 2 3 3 -1 9
24 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 8 3 0 5 -2 9
25 Olympique de Marseille 8 3 0 5 -3 9
26 Paphos FC 8 2 3 3 -3 9
27 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 8 3 0 5 -9 9
28 PSV 8 2 2 4 0 8
29 Athletic Club 8 2 2 4 -5 8
30 SSC Napoli 8 2 2 4 -6 8
31 FC København 8 2 2 4 -9 8
32 AFC Ajax 8 2 0 6 -13 6
33 Eintracht Frankfurt 8 1 1 6 -11 4
34 SK Slavia Praha 8 0 3 5 -14 3
35 Villarreal CF 8 0 1 7 -13 1
36 FK Kairat 8 0 1 7 -15 1
Real Madrid
SL Benfica
percent

Coach AI Odds

Real Madrid
65% · 20% · 15%
SL Benfica
W D L

Projected xG by CoachAI

2.15

Home xG

0.95

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Real Madrid Recent Form — Last 5

3 W · 0 D · 2 L
▼
▲
17/2 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0-1 Real Madrid CF W 1.95
28/1 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 4-2 Real Madrid CF L 1.95
20/1 Real Madrid CF 6-1 AS Monaco FC W 2.15
10/12 Real Madrid CF 1-2 Manchester City FC L
26/11 PAE Olympiakos SFP 3-4 Real Madrid CF W

SL Benfica Recent Form — Last 5

3 W · 0 D · 2 L
▼
▲
▼
17/2 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0-1 Real Madrid CF L 1.35
28/1 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 4-2 Real Madrid CF W 1.25
21/1 Juventus FC 2-0 Sport Lisboa e Benfica L 1.43
10/12 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2-0 SSC Napoli W
25/11 AFC Ajax 0-2 Sport Lisboa e Benfica W
bolt

Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Efficiency Gap: Real Madrid has significantly overperformed their xG (22 goals from 17.0 xG), while Benfica has struggled with conversion (15 goals from 20.1 xG) in this competition.

trending_up 2

Bernabéu Fortress: Real Madrid enters this match with six consecutive home victories, averaging 3.5 goals per game at home during this period.

person 3

Defensive Vulnerability: With Éder Militão and Dean Huijsen injured, Real Madrid is forced to start youngster Raúl Asencio in central defense, leaving them susceptible to Benfica's high shot volume (182 shots this season).

medical_services

Injuries & Absentees

Real Madrid faces a crisis with Jude Bellingham, Éder Militão, and Dean Huijsen out. Rodrygo is suspended. Most critically, Kylian Mbappé is a major doubt following a late knee setback in training; if he misses out, homegrown talent Gonzalo García (6 goals in 7 starts) will likely debut. Benfica is missing Prestianni (suspension) and manager José Mourinho (touchline ban), though they regain key midfielder Richard Ríos.

The analyses and predictions on this page are generated by artificial intelligence and are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. This is not gambling advice.

Play along in the app!

Think you know better than Coach AI? Create your own league and predict this match in Football Meister.

Start your free league →
chevron_left

Previous match

Atalanta
Atalanta

vs

Dortmund
Dortmund

25 Feb · 18:45

Next match

PSG
PSG

vs

Monaco
Monaco

25 Feb · 21:00

chevron_right

Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Real Madrid vs SL Benfica?

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 with a win probability of 65% for Real Madrid, 20% draw and 15% for SL Benfica.

What is the recent form of Real Madrid and SL Benfica?

Real Madrid form (last 5): 3W-0D-2L. SL Benfica form (last 5): 3W-0D-2L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Real Madrid vs SL Benfica?

Real Madrid faces a crisis with Jude Bellingham, Éder Militão, and Dean Huijsen out. Rodrygo is suspended. Most critically, Kylian Mbappé is a major doubt following a late knee setback in training; if he misses out, homegrown talent Gonzalo García (6 goals in 7 starts) will likely debut. Benfica is missing Prestianni (suspension) and manager José Mourinho (touchline ban), though they regain key midfielder Richard Ríos.

What are the current standings for Real Madrid and SL Benfica in the UEFA Champions League?

Real Madrid are 9th in the UEFA Champions League with 15 points from 8 games. SL Benfica are 24th with 9 points from 8 games.

What time does Real Madrid vs SL Benfica kick off?

Real Madrid vs SL Benfica kicks off on Wednesday, 25 February 2026 at 21:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Champions League.

Who is the referee for Real Madrid vs SL Benfica?

The referee for Real Madrid vs SL Benfica in the Champions League is Slavko Vinčič.

What are the key factors for Real Madrid vs SL Benfica?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Real Madrid vs SL Benfica: 1. Efficiency Gap: Real Madrid has significantly overperformed their xG (22 goals from 17.0 xG), while Benfica has struggled with conversion (15 goals from 20.1 xG) in this competition. 2. Bernabéu Fortress: Real Madrid enters this match with six consecutive home victories, averaging 3.5 goals per game at home during this period. 3. Defensive Vulnerability: With Éder Militão and Dean Huijsen injured, Real Madrid is forced to start youngster Raúl Asencio in central defense, leaving them susceptible to Benfica's high shot volume (182 shots this season)..

What are the Coach AI odds for Real Madrid vs SL Benfica?

Coach AI calculates the following outcome probabilities for Real Madrid vs SL Benfica: Real Madrid wins 65%, draw 20%, SL Benfica wins 15%. The most likely outcome is Real Madrid with 65%.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.