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Bournemouth vs Aston Villa — Premier League Prediction 7 February 2026

Bournemouth
Bournemouth
Premier League
2
VS
1
schedule 07 Feb, 15:00 · Referee: Anthony Taylor (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 22 Jun 2026

Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Final result
1 – 1
CoachAI prediction
2 – 1
✗ Outcome incorrect
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Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa in the Premier League. Aston Villa is the favourite with a 39% win probability. Bournemouth has a 35% chance of winning and 26% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Bournemouth vs Aston Villa

This is a 'clash of trajectories.' Villa is fighting to maintain 3rd place and Champions League eligibility but is showing signs of mid-season fatigue. Bournemouth is playing with zero pressure, currently sitting 12th and coming off a string of high-profile wins. Historically, Emery has dominated Iraola (5-2-0 H2H), but the current environmental factors (heavy rain/wind at the Vitality Stadium) favor Bournemouth's more physical, high-intensity style over Villa's structured possession.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

38%
27%
35%
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Scenario Explanation

The Narrative: Expect a chaotic, high-energy match where Bournemouth exploits Villa’s lack of midfield shielding. Without Kamara to break up play, Bournemouth’s vertical transitions will create multiple 'Big Chances.' Narrative-wise, Bournemouth is due to finally break the 'Emery Curse.' The Value Tip: The market still prices Villa as favorites due to league position, but 'Draw No Bet' on Bournemouth or 'BTTS' offers significant value given Villa’s defensive leaks without their starting 6. Probability Estimates: Bournemouth Win (38%), Draw (27%), Villa Win (35%). Final Verdict: Bournemouth’s momentum and Villa’s structural injuries point to a narrow home victory.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Matchday

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
1 AFC Bournemouth 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Arsenal FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Aston Villa FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Brentford FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Chelsea FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Coventry City FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Crystal Palace FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Everton FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Fulham FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Hull City AFC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Ipswich Town FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Leeds United FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Liverpool FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Manchester City FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Manchester United FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Newcastle United FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Nottingham Forest FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Sunderland AFC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Tottenham Hotspur FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bournemouth
Aston Villa
percent

Coach AI Odds

Bournemouth
35% · 26% · 39%
Aston Villa
W D L

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.62

Home xG

1.28

Away xG

Upset Chance

High

Risk of unexpected result

Bournemouth Recent Form — Last 5

3 W · 1 D · 1 L
▲
▼
31/1 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 0-2 AFC Bournemouth W 1.55
24/1 AFC Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool FC W 1.35
19/1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1-1 AFC Bournemouth D 1.62
7/1 AFC Bournemouth 3-2 Tottenham Hotspur FC W
3/1 AFC Bournemouth 2-3 Arsenal FC L

Aston Villa Recent Form — Last 5

2 W · 1 D · 2 L
▼
▲
▼
1/2 Aston Villa FC 0-1 Brentford FC L 1.32
25/1 Newcastle United FC 0-2 Aston Villa FC W 1.38
18/1 Aston Villa FC 0-1 Everton FC L 1.58
7/1 Crystal Palace FC 0-0 Aston Villa FC D
3/1 Aston Villa FC 3-1 Nottingham Forest FC W
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Key Factors

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Aston Villa Midfield Crisis: The simultaneous absence of McGinn, Kamara, and Tielemans leaves Unai Emery with a makeshift engine room, vulnerable to Bournemouth’s elite high-press system (PPDA).

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Tactical Divergence: Andoni Iraola’s aggressive pressing vs. Emery’s high defensive line. In expected 30mph+ winds and rain, Villa’s precision offside trap and playing out from the back are high-risk.

person 3

Form Disparity: Bournemouth are in 'Giant Killer' mode after defeating Liverpool and Tottenham, while Villa have hit a statistical slump, underperforming their xG in recent losses to Brentford and Everton.

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Injuries & Absentees

Both sides are heavily depleted. Bournemouth is missing its primary creative width (Kluivert, Tavernier, Doak), forcing Junior Kroupi and Amine Adli into high-usage roles. However, Villa’s injuries are more systemic; the loss of their entire first-choice midfield trio (Kamara, McGinn, Tielemans) destroys their transition control. While Ollie Watkins is training, he is unlikely to be 100%, placing heavy pressure on January signing Tammy Abraham.

The analyses and predictions on this page are generated by artificial intelligence and are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. This is not gambling advice.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 with a win probability of 35% for Bournemouth, 26% draw and 39% for Aston Villa.

What is the recent form of Bournemouth and Aston Villa?

Bournemouth form (last 5): 3W-1D-1L. Aston Villa form (last 5): 2W-1D-2L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?

Both sides are heavily depleted. Bournemouth is missing its primary creative width (Kluivert, Tavernier, Doak), forcing Junior Kroupi and Amine Adli into high-usage roles. However, Villa’s injuries are more systemic; the loss of their entire first-choice midfield trio (Kamara, McGinn, Tielemans) destroys their transition control. While Ollie Watkins is training, he is unlikely to be 100%, placing heavy pressure on January signing Tammy Abraham.

What are the current standings for Bournemouth and Aston Villa in the Premier League?

Bournemouth are 1st in the Premier League with 0 points from 0 games. Aston Villa are 1st with 0 points from 0 games.

What time does Bournemouth vs Aston Villa kick off?

Bournemouth vs Aston Villa kicks off on Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 16:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?

The referee for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa in the Premier League is Anthony Taylor.

What are the key factors for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: 1. Aston Villa Midfield Crisis: The simultaneous absence of McGinn, Kamara, and Tielemans leaves Unai Emery with a makeshift engine room, vulnerable to Bournemouth’s elite high-press system (PPDA). 2. Tactical Divergence: Andoni Iraola’s aggressive pressing vs. Emery’s high defensive line. In expected 30mph+ winds and rain, Villa’s precision offside trap and playing out from the back are high-risk. 3. Form Disparity: Bournemouth are in 'Giant Killer' mode after defeating Liverpool and Tottenham, while Villa have hit a statistical slump, underperforming their xG in recent losses to Brentford and Everton..

What are the Coach AI odds for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?

Coach AI calculates the following outcome probabilities for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: Bournemouth wins 35%, draw 26%, Aston Villa wins 39%. The most likely outcome is Aston Villa with 39%.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.