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Newcastle vs West Ham — Premier League Prediction 17 May 2026

Newcastle
Newcastle
Premier League
1
VS
2
schedule 17 May, 16:30 · Referee: Jarred Gillett (Australia)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 21 May 2026

West Ham
West Ham
Final result
3 – 1
CoachAI prediction
1 – 2
✗ Outcome incorrect
Kickoff in

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 for Newcastle vs West Ham in the Premier League. Newcastle is the favourite with a 44% win probability. West Ham has a 30% chance of winning and 26% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Newcastle vs West Ham

This is a Gameweek 37 clash where psychology outweighs form. West Ham sits 2 points behind safety and must capitalize on a Newcastle side that has entered 'vacation mode' and is experimenting with a fluid 4-2-3-1 system. The referee, Jarred Gillett, tends to let play flow, which may benefit West Ham's physical counter-attacking style.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

45%
30%
25%
analytics
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Scenario Explanation

1 draw (30% probability) is also plausible if Newcastle's individual quality, particularly through Bruno Guimarães, balances out their lack of tactical urgency. A Newcastle win (25% probability) would require a total collapse of West Ham's nerves, which is less likely given the experience of Bowen and Wilson in high-pressure games.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
9 Brentford FC 37 14 10 13 +3 52
10 Sunderland AFC 37 13 12 12 -7 51
11 Newcastle United FC 37 14 7 16 0 49
12 Everton FC 37 13 10 14 -2 49
13 Fulham FC 37 14 7 16 -6 49
14 Leeds United FC 37 11 14 12 -4 47
15 Crystal Palace FC 37 11 12 14 -9 45
16 Nottingham Forest FC 37 11 10 16 -3 43
17 Tottenham Hotspur FC 37 9 11 17 -10 38
18 West Ham United FC 37 9 9 19 -22 36
19 Burnley FC 37 4 9 24 -37 21
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 37 3 10 24 -41 19
Newcastle
West Ham

Most likely scorelines

1-1 12% 1-2 11% 2-1 10%
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Correct Score Prediction

AI-calculated probability per scoreline

Most Likely Scorelines
1-1 12%
1-2 11%
2-1 10%
West Ham (Away)
Newcastle (Home)
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
7.0%
5.0%
2.0%
0.0%
1
6.0%
12.0%
11.0%
4.0%
0.0%
2
5.0%
10.0%
9.0%
3.0%
0.0%
3
3.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
4
1.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
1.0%

The absence of Newcastle's defensive leader Schär and the extreme relegation desperation of West Ham shift the probability density away from a low-scoring 1-1 or 1-0 toward more volatile 2-2, 1-2, and 2-1 scorelines.

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.62

Home xG

1.35

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Newcastle Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 1 D · 3 L
10/5 Nottingham Forest FC 1-1 Newcastle United FC D 1.52
2/5 Newcastle United FC 3-1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC W 1.52
25/4 Arsenal FC 1-0 Newcastle United FC L 1.18
18/4 Newcastle United FC 1-2 AFC Bournemouth L 1.68
12/4 Crystal Palace FC 2-1 Newcastle United FC L 1.55

West Ham Recent Form — Last 5

2 W · 1 D · 2 L
10/5 West Ham United FC 0-1 Arsenal FC L 1.25
2/5 Brentford FC 3-0 West Ham United FC L 1.24
25/4 West Ham United FC 2-1 Everton FC W 1.35
20/4 Crystal Palace FC 0-0 West Ham United FC D 1.22
10/4 West Ham United FC 4-0 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC W 1.45
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Maximum stakes: West Ham (18th) is fighting for Premier League survival, requiring a win to avoid potential relegation before the final day, while Newcastle (13th) has no mathematical objectives left.

trending_up 2

Newcastle Defensive Crisis: The Magpies are missing key defensive pillars including Fabian Schär, Tino Livramento, and Sven Botman, contributing to a record of only one clean sheet in their last 14 matches.

person 3

Advanced Stats: Newcastle has dropped 27 points from winning positions this season (League high), while West Ham's xG efficiency has spiked in 'must-win' scenarios against lower/mid-table opposition.

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Injuries & Absentees

Newcastle is severely depleted; the loss of Fabian Schär (ankle) and Joelinton (thigh) removes the team's defensive leadership and midfield physicality. West Ham is nearly at full strength, with the fit-again Callum Wilson likely motivated to score against his former club, while only Adama Traore is sidelined.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Newcastle vs West Ham?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 with a win probability of 44% for Newcastle, 26% draw and 30% for West Ham.

What is the recent form of Newcastle and West Ham?

Newcastle form (last 5): 1W-1D-3L. West Ham form (last 5): 2W-1D-2L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Newcastle vs West Ham?

Newcastle is severely depleted; the loss of Fabian Schär (ankle) and Joelinton (thigh) removes the team's defensive leadership and midfield physicality. West Ham is nearly at full strength, with the fit-again Callum Wilson likely motivated to score against his former club, while only Adama Traore is sidelined.

What is the most likely correct score for Newcastle vs West Ham?

According to the score probability matrix, 1-1 is the most likely scoreline (12%), followed by 1-2 (11%) and 2-1 (10%).

What are the current standings for Newcastle and West Ham in the Premier League?

Newcastle are 11th in the Premier League with 49 points from 37 games. West Ham are 18th with 36 points from 37 games.

What time does Newcastle vs West Ham kick off?

Newcastle vs West Ham kicks off on Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 18:30 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Newcastle vs West Ham?

The referee for Newcastle vs West Ham in the Premier League is Jarred Gillett.

What are the key factors for Newcastle vs West Ham?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Newcastle vs West Ham: 1. Maximum stakes: West Ham (18th) is fighting for Premier League survival, requiring a win to avoid potential relegation before the final day, while Newcastle (13th) has no mathematical objectives left. 2. Newcastle Defensive Crisis: The Magpies are missing key defensive pillars including Fabian Schär, Tino Livramento, and Sven Botman, contributing to a record of only one clean sheet in their last 14 matches. 3. Advanced Stats: Newcastle has dropped 27 points from winning positions this season (League high), while West Ham's xG efficiency has spiked in 'must-win' scenarios against lower/mid-table opposition..

What are the bookmaker odds for Newcastle vs West Ham?

Bookmakers give Newcastle a 47% win probability, 26% draw and West Ham 27% chance of winning. Coach AI estimates 39% for {{HOME_TEAM}}, 28% draw and 33% for {{AWAY_TEAM}}.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.