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Leeds United vs Sunderland — Premier League Prediction 3 March 2026

Leeds United
Leeds United
Premier League
2
VS
1
schedule 03 Mar, 19:30 · Referee: Stuart Attwell (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 22 Jun 2026

Sunderland
Sunderland
Final result
0 – 1
CoachAI prediction
2 – 1
✗ Outcome incorrect
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Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 for Leeds United vs Sunderland in the Premier League. Leeds United is the favourite with a 50% win probability. Sunderland has a 23% chance of winning and 27% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Leeds United vs Sunderland

Played under the lights at Elland Road on a cold, likely rainy Tuesday night. Leeds are fighting for Premier League survival (15th), while Sunderland's European hopes (12th) are fading due to form and injuries. Leeds have shifted to a more direct 3-5-2 system recently, focusing on feeding Dominic Calvert-Lewin.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

55%
30%
15%
analytics
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Scenario Explanation

1 draw (30%) remains possible if Leeds repeat their wasteful finishing seen against Manchester City (1.25 xG, 0 goals). A Sunderland smash-and-grab win (15%) would require a masterclass from Granit Xhaka and a severe defensive blunder from the hosts.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Matchday

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
1 AFC Bournemouth 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Arsenal FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Aston Villa FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Brentford FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Chelsea FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Coventry City FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Crystal Palace FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Everton FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Fulham FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Hull City AFC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Ipswich Town FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Leeds United FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Liverpool FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Manchester City FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Manchester United FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Newcastle United FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Nottingham Forest FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Sunderland AFC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Tottenham Hotspur FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
Leeds United
Sunderland
percent

Coach AI Odds

Leeds United
50% · 27% · 23%
Sunderland
W D L

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.65

Home xG

1.05

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Leeds United Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 2 D · 2 L
▼
▲
▲
▼
28/2 Leeds United FC 0-1 Manchester City FC L 1.25
21/2 Aston Villa FC 1-1 Leeds United FC D 1.35
10/2 Chelsea FC 2-2 Leeds United FC D 1.18
6/2 Leeds United FC 3-1 Nottingham Forest FC W 1.52
31/1 Leeds United FC 0-4 Arsenal FC L 1.15

Sunderland Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 1 D · 3 L
▼
▼
▲
28/2 AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland AFC D 1.12
22/2 Sunderland AFC 1-3 Fulham FC L 1.35
11/2 Sunderland AFC 0-1 Liverpool FC L 1.25
7/2 Arsenal FC 3-0 Sunderland AFC L 0.80
2/2 Sunderland AFC 3-0 Burnley FC W 1.35
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Sunderland Injury Crisis: The visitors are missing at least six regular starters including Mukiele, Brobbey, and Reinildo, severely depleting their defensive and attacking depth.

trending_up 2

xG Disparity: Leeds maintain a high season xG (1.49 per match) but have underperformed their scoring metrics recently; a regression to the mean is likely against a weakened defense.

person 3

Sunderland's Away Struggles: The Black Cats average only 0.5 goals per game on the road and haven't won an away match since October.

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Leeds Defensive Vulnerability: Despite dominance, Leeds have conceded in 7 consecutive games and 10 of their last 11, making a clean sheet unlikely even against a depleted attack.

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Injuries & Absentees

Sunderland is severely hampered with Nordi Mukiele, Brian Brobbey, Reinildo Mandava, Dennis Cirkin, Romaine Mundle, and Jocelin Ta Bi all ruled out. Leeds is only missing Noah Okafor, though manager Daniel Farke is serving a touchline ban. Key defenders Joe Rodon and James Justin are expected to start despite recent knocks.

The analyses and predictions on this page are generated by artificial intelligence and are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. This is not gambling advice.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Leeds United vs Sunderland?

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 with a win probability of 50% for Leeds United, 27% draw and 23% for Sunderland.

What is the recent form of Leeds United and Sunderland?

Leeds United form (last 5): 1W-2D-2L. Sunderland form (last 5): 1W-1D-3L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Leeds United vs Sunderland?

Sunderland is severely hampered with Nordi Mukiele, Brian Brobbey, Reinildo Mandava, Dennis Cirkin, Romaine Mundle, and Jocelin Ta Bi all ruled out. Leeds is only missing Noah Okafor, though manager Daniel Farke is serving a touchline ban. Key defenders Joe Rodon and James Justin are expected to start despite recent knocks.

What are the current standings for Leeds United and Sunderland in the Premier League?

Leeds United are 1st in the Premier League with 0 points from 0 games. Sunderland are 1st with 0 points from 0 games.

What time does Leeds United vs Sunderland kick off?

Leeds United vs Sunderland kicks off on Tuesday, 3 March 2026 at 20:30 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Leeds United vs Sunderland?

The referee for Leeds United vs Sunderland in the Premier League is Stuart Attwell.

What are the key factors for Leeds United vs Sunderland?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Leeds United vs Sunderland: 1. Sunderland Injury Crisis: The visitors are missing at least six regular starters including Mukiele, Brobbey, and Reinildo, severely depleting their defensive and attacking depth. 2. xG Disparity: Leeds maintain a high season xG (1.49 per match) but have underperformed their scoring metrics recently; a regression to the mean is likely against a weakened defense. 3. Sunderland's Away Struggles: The Black Cats average only 0.5 goals per game on the road and haven't won an away match since October. 4. Leeds Defensive Vulnerability: Despite dominance, Leeds have conceded in 7 consecutive games and 10 of their last 11, making a clean sheet unlikely even against a depleted attack..

What are the Coach AI odds for Leeds United vs Sunderland?

Coach AI calculates the following outcome probabilities for Leeds United vs Sunderland: Leeds United wins 50%, draw 27%, Sunderland wins 23%. The most likely outcome is Leeds United with 50%.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.