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Newcastle vs Aston Villa — Premier League Prediction 25 January 2026

Newcastle
Newcastle
Premier League
2
VS
1
schedule 25 Jan, 14:00 · Referee: Jarred Gillett (Australia)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 22 Jun 2026

Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Final result
0 – 2
CoachAI prediction
2 – 1
✗ Outcome incorrect
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Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 for Newcastle vs Aston Villa in the Premier League. Newcastle is the favourite with a 48% win probability. Aston Villa has a 27% chance of winning and 25% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Newcastle vs Aston Villa

This is a 'six-pointer' for European qualification. Villa (3rd) is overperforming their xG significantly this season (+8.7), but they have stalled recently, failing to score in their last two league outings. Newcastle (7th) is formidable at St. James' Park but 'stretched' by a dense schedule including Champions League commitments. The cold, wet January weather in Tyneside typically favors Newcastle’s high-tempo 'heavy metal' football over Emery’s more controlled, technical build-up.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

48%
27%
25%
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Scenario Explanation

1 scoreline reflects Newcastle’s offensive potency at home and their own defensive vulnerabilities due to injuries. Probability: Home Win 48%, Draw 27%, Away Win 25%.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Matchday

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
1 AFC Bournemouth 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Arsenal FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Aston Villa FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Brentford FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Chelsea FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Coventry City FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Crystal Palace FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Everton FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Fulham FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Hull City AFC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Ipswich Town FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Leeds United FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Liverpool FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Manchester City FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Manchester United FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Newcastle United FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Nottingham Forest FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Sunderland AFC 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Tottenham Hotspur FC 0 0 0 0 0 0
Newcastle
Aston Villa
percent

Coach AI Odds

Newcastle
48% · 25% · 27%
Aston Villa
W D L

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.91

Home xG

1.38

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Newcastle Recent Form — Last 5

0 W · 0 D · 0 L
▲
▼
21/1 3-0 Win vs. PSV 1.94
18/1 0-0 Draw vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 1.60
7/1 4-3 Win vs. Leeds United FC
4/1 2-0 Win vs. Crystal Palace FC
30/12 3-1 Win vs. Burnley FC

Aston Villa Recent Form — Last 5

0 W · 0 D · 0 L
▼
18/1 0-1 Loss vs. Everton FC 1.58
7/1 0-0 Draw vs. Crystal Palace FC
3/1 3-1 Win vs. Nottingham Forest FC
30/12 1-4 Loss vs. Arsenal FC
27/12 2-1 Win vs. Chelsea FC
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Historic Dominance: Newcastle is unbeaten in 17 home league games against Aston Villa (W11 D6), winning the last four by a 13-1 aggregate.

trending_up 2

Midfield Attrition: Both sides are missing tactical anchors; Villa is without McGinn and Kamara (engine room), while Newcastle faces a late fitness test for Bruno Guimarães.

person 3

Home Scoring Streak: Newcastle has scored 2+ goals in each of their last eight Premier League matches at St. James' Park, thriving on a high-intensity press (low PPDA) that exploits Villa's tendency to sit deep.

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Injuries & Absentees

Newcastle's defense is severely depleted with Schär, Livramento, and Krafth ruled out, forcing a makeshift backline likely featuring Thiaw and Hall. However, the most critical impact is the potential absence of Bruno Guimarães (ankle), whose ball-progression is irreplaceable. Aston Villa faces a similar crisis in midfield; the loss of John McGinn and Boubacar Kamara removes their defensive screen and leadership, leaving Youri Tielemans with an immense workload against Newcastle’s high-energy trio of Tonali, Joelinton, and Miley.

The analyses and predictions on this page are generated by artificial intelligence and are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. This is not gambling advice.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 with a win probability of 48% for Newcastle, 25% draw and 27% for Aston Villa.

What is the recent form of Newcastle and Aston Villa?

Newcastle form (last 5): 0W-0D-0L. Aston Villa form (last 5): 0W-0D-0L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?

Newcastle's defense is severely depleted with Schär, Livramento, and Krafth ruled out, forcing a makeshift backline likely featuring Thiaw and Hall. However, the most critical impact is the potential absence of Bruno Guimarães (ankle), whose ball-progression is irreplaceable. Aston Villa faces a similar crisis in midfield; the loss of John McGinn and Boubacar Kamara removes their defensive screen and leadership, leaving Youri Tielemans with an immense workload against Newcastle’s high-energy trio of Tonali, Joelinton, and Miley.

What are the current standings for Newcastle and Aston Villa in the Premier League?

Newcastle are 1st in the Premier League with 0 points from 0 games. Aston Villa are 1st with 0 points from 0 games.

What time does Newcastle vs Aston Villa kick off?

Newcastle vs Aston Villa kicks off on Sunday, 25 January 2026 at 15:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?

The referee for Newcastle vs Aston Villa in the Premier League is Jarred Gillett.

What are the key factors for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Newcastle vs Aston Villa: 1. Historic Dominance: Newcastle is unbeaten in 17 home league games against Aston Villa (W11 D6), winning the last four by a 13-1 aggregate. 2. Midfield Attrition: Both sides are missing tactical anchors; Villa is without McGinn and Kamara (engine room), while Newcastle faces a late fitness test for Bruno Guimarães. 3. Home Scoring Streak: Newcastle has scored 2+ goals in each of their last eight Premier League matches at St. James' Park, thriving on a high-intensity press (low PPDA) that exploits Villa's tendency to sit deep..

What are the Coach AI odds for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?

Coach AI calculates the following outcome probabilities for Newcastle vs Aston Villa: Newcastle wins 48%, draw 25%, Aston Villa wins 27%. The most likely outcome is Newcastle with 48%.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.